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The Oil Price Surge and the Silence of the ‘Expert’ Public
Good news for those who once declared they would happily pay Rs 500 a litre and still vote for Modi ji. That Rs 500-a-litre petrol may still be some distance away, but Delhi has already served up a delicious starter: petrol crossed Rs 100, and on 25 May alone it jumped by Rs 2.61 per litre, diesel by Rs 2.71. In just 11 days, petrol has shot up by Rs 7.94 and diesel by Rs 7.57. In Patna, petrol is now Rs 113 a litre; CNG in Delhi has sailed past Rs 81. The people, however, are not jumping up and down – at least not in protest. Their bouncing is happening on news channels, where they have miraculously transformed into global energy experts.
1. The Public’s Newfound Expertise: A Crash Course in Geopolitics
Switch on any news channel and you will find reporters thrusting microphones at people on petrol pumps. The responses are a masterclass in strategic patience. “The government’s hands are tied,” says one. “Until the war ends, the situation won’t normalize,” explains another. “We know crude has touched $100 a barrel, so prices will rise – but if the war ends, the government should reduce them quickly,” a third adds, suddenly sounding like a finance ministry spokesperson. The public has stopped wailing about inflation and started giving PowerPoint-worthy presentations on global supply chains.
This is a remarkable transformation. Before 2014, when the UPA was in power, the same public would take to the streets at the mere whisper of a price rise. The BJP’s leaders would dance to the song “Mehngai dayan khaye jaat hai” (the witch of inflation is devouring us). Today, that witch has been retired, and the public has enrolled in a crash course titled “Why the Government is Helpless”. They have internalized the global narrative so thoroughly that they now sound like spokespersons for the Ministry of External Affairs. The real breaking news is not the price hike – it’s the public’s newfound “understanding”.
2. Fear, Not Wisdom, Is the Real Reason
But let’s not mistake fear for wisdom. The same public that patiently explains crude oil futures is also learning a harsher lesson: the cost of protesting has become far higher than the cost of petrol. When Aamir Khan, a man seen in photo frames with chief ministers and the powerful, tweeted a song from his own film and then deleted it within hours, the question echoed – what was he afraid of? If a superstar cannot muster the courage, why should an ordinary employee filling petrol at a pump dare to show anger?
Consider Vedant Srivastava, a student who simply asked CBSE to recheck his physics paper. His tweet was seen by 2 million people, and the digital mob immediately branded him a “Pakistani”. His brother had to step in and publicly plead: “How can my brother be called a Pakistani?” A child, a student, labeled an anti-national for questioning an exam board. This is the atmosphere in which fuel prices are rising. When speaking out can get you investigated by the Enforcement Directorate, or turned into a “deshdrohi” overnight, silence becomes a survival strategy. Inflation may be burning holes in pockets, but the fear of the state’s machinery burns far deeper.
3. The Hidden Distress: Gold Loans and Default Warnings
Behind the smiling “expert” faces on TV, the ground reality is grim. On 28 April 2026, the Reserve Bank of India quietly asked banks to prepare for a spike in loan defaults by FY2027 and to set aside separate funds. A few weeks later, on 16 May, The Hindu Business Line carried an interview with George Alexander Muthoot, MD of Muthoot Finance. The headline said it all: “More people than ever are pledging gold for loans.” Muthoot Finance recorded a 48% jump in its gold loan business in FY2026. Mr Muthoot candidly admitted, “People’s purchasing power is declining; their incomes have been hit. But our business hasn’t been affected – in fact, more and more people are coming to us.” When gold loans surge 48% in a year, it means families are pawning their last assets to put food on the table, to pay school fees, to buy medicines. The smiling face on the petrol pump is the same person quietly removing his wife’s bangles from the locker.
The Chamber of Trade and Industry (CTI) wrote to Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri, pleading for an emergency meeting of state finance ministers to cut VAT on fuel to 5% for three months – a move that could slash prices by Rs 10-15 per litre. Yet, the government, which can arrange a photo-op in minutes, cannot seem to arrange that meeting.
4. Oil Company Profits vs. People’s Burden: The Great Transfer of Losses
The narrative fed to us is that oil marketing companies are bleeding. Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri once claimed they were losing Rs 1,000 crore every day. But the numbers tell a very different story. In the fourth quarter of FY2025 (January-March 2025), the combined profit of IOC, BPCL, and HPCL jumped 41% to Rs 19,470 crore. For the full year 2024-25, profits surged by 130% compared to the previous year. In FY2024 alone, these three companies raked in Rs 81,000 crore in profit. Where did that money go? The losses, it seems, are always socialized; the profits are privatized.
The table below exposes the brutal math of crude prices versus what the Indian citizen paid. When crude crashed, the government gobbled up the gains through excise hikes. When crude soared, the bill was instantly transferred to the public.
| Year | Crude Price ($/barrel) | Petrol in Delhi (Rs/litre) | Central Excise (approx Rs/litre) | What Happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 114 | 72 | 9.48 | UPA era; excise moderate |
| 2016 | 27 | 64 | 21.48 | BJP raised excise 11 times; price barely fell |
| 2020 (Covid) | 20 | ~70 | 32.98 | Record low crude, record high excise |
| March 2025 | ~75 | 94 | 9.98* | Pre-election excise cut of Rs 10 |
| April 2025 | ~78 | 96 | 11.98 | Government quietly added Rs 2 excise |
| May 2026 | ~97 | 103 | 11.98 | Iran tensions; daily hikes; people pay more |
*Estimates based on reported excise adjustments; data collated from Manik Tagore’s analysis and CAG reports.
When crude plunged from $114 to $27 between 2014 and 2016, petrol prices dropped by a mere Rs 8, while the government silently filled its coffers with over Rs 12 in additional excise. In 2026, when crude jumped to $97, the retail price was jacked up within days. This is the government’s definition of “citizens’ interest first”.
5. The Government’s Tax Game: Centre, States, and the Never-Ending Excuse
On 27 March 2025, with elections around the corner, the Modi government cut central excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs 10. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal thumped his chest and declared, “Despite the global challenges, the Modi government has taken the loss upon itself to make citizens’ lives easier. Whatever the global challenge, the interest of Indian citizens comes first.” A grand narrative of sacrifice. But as soon as the elections were over, the government quietly added back Rs 2 per litre in April 2025, and by May 2026, daily price hikes became the norm. The “loss” they took upon themselves lasted just long enough for the polling booths to close.
States, too, have feasted on fuel taxes. After GST implementation squeezed their revenue, almost all states – except Kerala, as per CAG reports – made up the shortfall by increasing VAT and sales tax on petrol, diesel, and jet fuel. Today, in many states, nearly 40-50% of the retail price of fuel is tax. The central and state governments together have turned petrol pumps into tax collection machines. And when global crude prices rise, nobody talks about reducing that tax burden; instead, the public is lectured on “global challenges”.
6. What Other Countries Did: Tax Cuts, Not Excuses
While India’s public was being trained in geopolitical patience, governments around the world took real steps to cushion their citizens. In the past month alone:
- Pakistan cut petrol prices by Rs 6 per litre and diesel by Rs 6.80.
- Germany’s Finance Minister ordered oil companies to pass on discounts and slashed the energy tax by 17 cents a litre, along with a relief package of over $1.4 billion.
- Thailand saw oil companies reduce pump prices by 85 satang.
- Australia halved its fuel excise duty for three months starting 30 March.
- South Africa reduced its fuel tax for one month from 31 March.
India’s response? A pre-election cut that was reversed, followed by daily price hikes and a wall of “expert” public opinion manufactured on television. If Germany, Australia, and South Africa can absorb fiscal pain to protect their people, why can’t a government that claims to have made India the fifth-largest economy do the same?
7. Pre-2014 Modi vs. Post-2014 Modi: The Hypocrisy Laid Bare
Before 2014, Narendra Modi and the BJP turned every fuel price rise into a weapon against the UPA. Modi himself would thunder about the “mehngai dayan”, and his supporters would sing, dance, and demand the government’s resignation. Today, those same leaders cannot even hum that tune. The Enforcement Directorate and a barrage of investigative agencies ensure that the song remains buried. Opposition leaders, activists, and even film stars know that if they raise their voice, their next few years might be spent in legal battles rather than on the streets. The BJP’s pre-2014 “public interest” was nothing but a ladder to power. Once on the throne, they pulled the ladder up and set the dogs on anyone who dares to ask for it back.
8. Conclusion: When the People Sing Songs of Joy Amid Ruin
The public may have been conditioned to rationalize every price hike, but the market data, the gold loan queues, and the RBI’s quiet warnings tell the real story. Indians are burning their savings to survive, while the government and its oil companies burnish their balance sheets. The tragedy is not just that petrol is Rs 113 a litre; the tragedy is that the public has been so systematically terrorized that it now explains its own exploitation in the language of its exploiters.
So, the next time you visit a petrol pump, pay Rs 500, fill exactly one litre, smile at the attendant and say, “I am very, very happy. Please keep the change.” That, dear viewers, is the true state of our democracy.
Criticisms
- The Modi government has turned fear into a state policy, ensuring that economic hardship is met with silence, not protest.
- BJP leaders who built their careers attacking UPA over fuel prices now cower behind “global factors” and use agencies to crush dissent.
- Oil PSUs are allowed to pocket record profits in good times and instantly pass on every loss to citizens, with the government’s full backing.
- The media behaves as a propaganda arm, airing staged “expert” vox pops while burying real stories of distress and state intimidation.
- Excise duty and VAT on fuel are regressive taxes that the poor pay, while the government pretends to be pro-poor.
- The selective tax cuts before elections and immediate rollback afterwards are a textbook betrayal of public trust.
- Despite ruling 21 states, the BJP refuses to coordinate a VAT reduction, exposing its complete disregard for citizens’ suffering.
- Calling a student a “Pakistani” for questioning an exam board is a direct outcome of the toxic nationalism this government has fostered.
- The narrative of “global helplessness” is a lie when other nations with fewer resources have cut taxes and cushioned their people.
- People have been reduced to smiling victims who dare not complain – and that is the greatest failure of Indian democracy under this regime.
AI generated, for reference only.
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