Showing posts with label Finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Finance. Show all posts

Monday, November 27, 2023

Psychology of Money (by Morgan Housel) - Summary

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Before we begin to summarize the book... 
First, let me tell you a story about a dentist appointment gone horribly awry.

It teaches us something vital about the dangers of giving advice about what to do with your money.
Clarence Hughes went to the dentist in 1931. His mouth was radiating pain.
His dentist put him under crude anesthesia to ease the pain. When Clarence awoke hours later he had 16 fewer teeth and his tonsils removed.

And then everything went wrong. Clarence died a week later from his surgery's complications.

His wife sued the dentist, but not because the surgery went awry. Every surgery risked death in 1931.
Clarence, she said, never consented to the procedures in the first place, and wouldn't if he were asked.

The case wove through courts, but went nowhere. Consent between doctor and patient wasn't black and white in 1931. One court summed up the idea that doctors require freedom to make the best medical decisions: “Without such, we could not enjoy the advancement of science.”

For most of history the ethos of medicine was that the doctor's job was to fix the patient, and what the patient thought about the doctor's treatment plans wasn't relevant. Dr. Jay Katz wrote about the philosophy in his book The Silent World Between Doctor and Patient:Doctors felt that in order to accomplish that objective they were obligated to attend to their patients' physical and emotional needs and to do so on their own authority, without consulting with their patients about the decisions that needed to be made. The idea that patients may also be entitled to sharing the burdens of decisions with their doctors was never part of the ethos of medicine.

This wasn't ego or malice. It was a belief in two points: Every patient wants to be cured.
There is a universal and right way to cure them.
Not requiring patient consent in treatment plans makes sense if you believe in those two points.
But that's not how medicine works.

In the last 50 years medical schools subtly shifted teaching away from treating disease and toward treating patients. That meant laying out the options of treatment plans, and then letting the patient decide the best path forward.

This trend was partly driven by patient-protection laws, partly by Katz's influential book, which argued that patients have wildly different views about what's worth it in medicine, so their beliefs have to be taken into consideration. Katz wrote:It is dangerous nonsense to assert that in the practice of their art and science physicians can rely on their benevolent intentions, their abilities to judge what is the right thing to do ... It is not that easy. Medicine is a complex profession and the interactions between physicians and patients are also complex.

That last line is important. “Medicine is a complex profession and the interactions between physicians and patients are also complex.”
You know what profession is the same? Financial advice.
I can't tell you what to do with your money, because I don't know you.
I don't know what you want. I don't know when you want it. I don't know why you want it.

So I'm not going to tell you what to do with your money. I don't want to treat you like a dentist treated Clarence Hughes.

But doctors and dentists aren't useless, obviously. They have knowledge.
They know the odds. They know what tends to work, even if patients come to different conclusions about what kind of treatment is right for them.
Financial advisors are the same. There are universal truths in money, even if people come to different conclusions about how they want to apply those truths to their own finances.
With that caveat in place, let's look at a few short recommendations that can help you make better decisions with your money.

1.
Go out of your way to find humility when things are going right and forgiveness/compassion when they go wrong. Because it's never as good or as bad as it looks. The world is big and complex. Luck and risk are both real and hard to identify. Do so when judging both yourself andothers. Respect the power of luck and risk and you'll have a better chance of focusing on things you can actually control. You'll also have a better chance of finding the right role models.

2.
Less ego, more wealth. Saving money is the gap between your ego and your income, and wealth is what you don't see. So wealth is created by suppressing what you could buy today in order to have more stuff or more options in the future. No matter how much you earn, you will never build wealth unless you can put a lid on how much fun you can have with your money right now, today.

3.
Manage your money in a way that helps you sleep at night. That's different from saying you should aim to earn the highest returns or save a specific percentage of your income. Some people won't sleep well unless they're earning the highest returns; others will only get a good rest if they're conservatively invested. To each their own. But the foundation of, “does this help me sleep at night?” is the best universal guidepost for all financial decisions.

4.
If you want to do better as an investor, the single most powerful thing you can do is increase your time horizon. Time is the most powerful force in investing. It makes little things grow big and big mistakes fade away. It can't neutralize luck and risk, but it pushes results closer towards what people deserve.

5.
Become OK with a lot of things going wrong. You can be wrong half the time and still make a fortune, because a small minority of things account for the majority of outcomes. No matter what you're doing with your money you should be comfortable with a lot of stuff not working. That's just how the world is. So you should always measure how you've done by looking at your full portfolio, rather than individual investments. It is fine to have a large chunk of poor investments and a few outstanding ones. That's usually the best-case scenario. Judging how you've done by focusing on individual investments makes winners look more brilliant than they were, and losers appear more regrettable than they should.

6.
Use money to gain control over your time, because not having control of your time is such a powerful and universal drag on happiness. The ability to do what you want, when you want, with who you want, for as long as you want to, pays the highest dividend that exists in finance.

7.
Be nicer and less flashy. No one is impressed with your possessions as much as you are. You might think you want a fancy car or a nice watch.
But what you probably want is respect and admiration. And you're more likely to gain those things through kindness and humility than horsepower and chrome.

8.
Save. Just save. You don't need a specific reason to save. It's great to save for a car, or a downpayment, or a medical emergency. But saving for things that are impossible to predict or define is one of the best reasons to save. Everyone's life is a continuous chain of surprises.
Savings that aren't earmarked for anything in particular is a hedge against life's inevitable ability to surprise the hell out of you at the worst possible moment.

9.
Define the cost of success and be ready to pay it. Because nothing worthwhile is free. And remember that most financial costs don't have visible price tags. Uncertainty, doubt, and regret are common costs in the finance world. They're often worth paying. But you have to view them as fees (a price worth paying to get something nice in exchange) rather than fines (a penalty you should avoid).

10.
Worship room for error. A gap between what could happen in the future and what you need to happen in the future in order to do well is what gives you endurance, and endurance is what makes compounding magic over time. Room for error often looks like a conservative hedge, but if it keeps you in the game it can pay for itself many times over.

11.
Avoid the extreme ends of financial decisions. Everyone's goals and desires will change over time, and the more extreme your past decisions were the more you may regret them as you evolve.

12.
You should like risk because it pays off over time. But you should be paranoid of ruinous risk because it prevents you from taking futurerisks that will pay off over time.

13.
Define the game you're playing, and make sure your actions are not being influenced by people playing a different game.

14.
Respect the mess. Smart, informed, and reasonable people can disagree in finance, because people have vastly different goals and desires. There is no single right answer; just the answer that works for you.

Thank you!
Tags: Book Summary,Finance,

Monday, August 7, 2023

Enhancing AI Risk Management in Financial Services with Machine Learning

Introduction:

The realm of financial services is rapidly embracing the power of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to enhance risk management strategies. By leveraging advanced ML models, financial institutions can gain deeper insights into potential risks, make informed decisions, and ensure the stability of their operations. In this article, we'll explore how AI-driven risk management can be achieved using the best ML models in Python, complete with code examples.



AI Risk Management in Financial Services


Step 1: Data Collection and Preprocessing

To begin, gather historical financial data relevant to your risk management objectives. This could include market prices, economic indicators, credit scores, and more. Clean and preprocess the data by handling missing values, normalizing features, and encoding categorical variables.


Step 2: Import Libraries and Data

In your Python script, start by importing the necessary libraries:

import pandas as pd import numpy as np from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split from sklearn.preprocessing import StandardScaler from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score, classification_report from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier from xgboost import XGBClassifier

Load and preprocess your dataset:

data = pd.read_csv("financial_data.csv") X = data.drop("risk_label", axis=1) y = data["risk_label"]

Step 3: Train-Test Split and Data Scaling

Split the data into training and testing sets:

X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42)

Scale the features for better model performance:

scaler = StandardScaler() X_train_scaled = scaler.fit_transform(X_train) X_test_scaled = scaler.transform(X_test)

Step 4: Implement ML Models

In this example, we'll use two powerful ML models: Random Forest and XGBoost.

  1. Random Forest Classifier:
rf_model = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=100, random_state=42) rf_model.fit(X_train_scaled, y_train) rf_predictions = rf_model.predict(X_test_scaled) rf_accuracy = accuracy_score(y_test, rf_predictions) print("Random Forest Accuracy:", rf_accuracy) print(classification_report(y_test, rf_predictions))
  1. XGBoost Classifier:
xgb_model = XGBClassifier(n_estimators=100, random_state=42) xgb_model.fit(X_train_scaled, y_train) xgb_predictions = xgb_model.predict(X_test_scaled) xgb_accuracy = accuracy_score(y_test, xgb_predictions) print("XGBoost Accuracy:", xgb_accuracy) print(classification_report(y_test, xgb_predictions))

Step 5: Evaluate and Compare

Evaluate the models' performance using accuracy and classification reports. Compare their results to determine which model is better suited for your risk management goals.


Conclusion:

AI-driven risk management is revolutionizing the financial services industry. By harnessing the capabilities of machine learning, financial institutions can accurately assess risks, make informed decisions, and ultimately ensure their stability and growth. In this article, we've demonstrated how to implement risk management using the best ML models in Python. Experiment with different models, fine-tune hyperparameters, and explore more advanced techniques to tailor the solution to your specific financial service needs. The future of risk management lies at the intersection of AI and finance, and now is the time to embrace its potential.


AI and Financial Risk Management – Critical Insights for Banking Leaders

I hope this article was helpful. If you have any questions, please feel free to leave a comment below.

Friday, August 4, 2023

Mapping the AI Finance Services Roadmap: Enhancing the Financial Landscape

Introduction

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has rapidly transformed the financial services industry, revolutionizing how we manage money, make investments, and access personalized financial advice. From robo-advisors to AI-driven risk management, the potential for AI in finance services is boundless. In this article, we'll navigate the AI Finance Services Roadmap, exploring the key milestones and opportunities that are reshaping the financial landscape and empowering consumers and businesses alike.



The Development of AI in the Financial Industry


Step 1: Personalized Financial Planning with Robo-Advisors

Robo-advisors have emerged as a revolutionary AI-powered tool that democratizes access to sophisticated financial planning. These platforms use AI algorithms to analyze an individual's financial situation, risk tolerance, and goals, enabling the creation of personalized investment portfolios. With lower fees and greater convenience, robo-advisors are transforming how we plan for our financial future.


Step 2: AI-Driven Credit Scoring and Lending

AI has revolutionized the lending process by introducing more efficient and accurate credit scoring models. By analyzing vast amounts of data, including transaction history, social media behavior, and online presence, AI algorithms can assess creditworthiness more effectively. This has opened up new avenues for individuals and businesses to access loans and credit facilities.


Step 3: Fraud Detection and Cybersecurity

The financial services industry faces persistent threats from cybercriminals. AI-based fraud detection systems can analyze vast data streams in real time, detecting suspicious activities and protecting against potential threats. By bolstering cybersecurity measures with AI, financial institutions can safeguard sensitive customer information and maintain trust in their services.


Step 4: AI-Powered Virtual Assistants

AI virtual assistants are reshaping customer interactions in the finance sector. These intelligent chatbots provide personalized support, answer inquiries, and perform routine tasks, enhancing the overall customer experience. By automating these processes, financial institutions can improve efficiency and focus on delivering high-value services to their clients.


Step 5: AI for Compliance and Regulatory Reporting

Compliance and regulatory reporting are critical aspects of the financial services industry. AI technologies can streamline these processes, ensuring adherence to complex regulations and reporting requirements. AI-driven solutions can identify potential compliance issues and proactively address them, reducing the risk of costly penalties and reputational damage.


Step 6: AI-Enhanced Risk Management

AI-powered risk management solutions provide more accurate and real-time risk assessment. These tools analyze historical data and market trends, enabling financial institutions to identify potential risks and make data-driven decisions. Enhanced risk management fosters stability and resilience, even in volatile market conditions.

Conclusion

The AI Finance Services Roadmap is shaping a future where financial services are more accessible, personalized, and secure than ever before. From robo-advisors offering tailored investment strategies to AI-driven fraud detection systems protecting against cyber threats, the transformative power of AI is revolutionizing the financial landscape. As we continue to innovate and embrace AI technologies, the potential for growth, efficiency, and customer satisfaction in the financial services industry is limitless. By navigating the AI Finance Services Roadmap, we can ensure a prosperous and inclusive financial future for individuals and businesses worldwide.

Overall, the AI finance services roadmap is promising. AI has the potential to improve efficiency, accuracy, and customer experience in the financial industry. However, there are also some challenges that need to be addressed before AI can be fully adopted in the financial sector.

I hope this article was helpful. If you have any questions, please feel free to leave a comment below.

Saturday, March 11, 2023

Books on Building Financial IQ (Mar 2023)

Download Books
1. 
The Intelligent Investor, The Definitive Book on Value Investing (2006)
Benjamin Graham and Jason Zweig

2.
The Little Book of Common Sense Investing
Bogle, John C 
Wiley (2017)

3.
The Essays of Warren Buffett. Lessons for Corporate America.
Lawrence A. Cunningham 
3rd Edition (2013)

4.
Rich Dad Poor Dad
What the Rich Teach Their Kids About Money That the Poor and Middle Class Do Not
Robert T. Kiyosaki
2017

7 Must-Read Books for a Millionaire Retirement

1. "The Psychology of Money" by Morgan Housel This isn't your traditional finance book. Housel focuses on the emotional and psychological aspects of money, shedding light on how our perceptions shape our financial decisions. By understanding and mastering our emotional triggers, we can make better-informed decisions that lead to wealth. 2. "Learn To Earn" by Peter Lynch and John Rothchild A comprehensive beginner's guide to investing. Lynch, one of the investment world's luminaries, and Rothchild simplify the maze of the stock market. Their approach underlines the importance of thorough research, understanding businesses at a granular level, and maintaining a long-term perspective in investments. 3. "Rich Dad Poor Dad" by Robert T. Kiyosaki Kiyosaki's seminal work is a game-changer in personal finance literature. Through contrasting tales of his "two dads", he highlights the mindset that distinguishes the wealthy from the rest. Central to his philosophy is the emphasis on financial literacy, the power of assets, and the potential of entrepreneurial ventures. 4. "The Most Important Thing" by Howard Marks Marks, an investment titan, shares wisdom from his illustrious career. He delves into understanding market rhythms, the nuances of risk, and the investor's psyche. Advocating a contrarian viewpoint, he stresses the virtues of patience and discernment in successful investing. 5. "Total Money Makeover" by Dave Ramsey A financial reboot manual. Ramsey meticulously outlines a plan designed to clear debt, build a safety net, and initiate investments. His methodology, rooted in personal responsibility and stringent discipline, offers a clear roadmap to financial rejuvenation. 6. "The Millionaire Fastlane" by MJ DeMarco Challenging mainstream notions of wealth-building, DeMarco proposes a radical approach. He underscores that the quickest path to affluence isn't a traditional job but through entrepreneurial ventures that can scale. The book is a clarion call to value time and harness business systems for wealth and autonomy. 7. "The Rules of Wealth" by Richard Templar A holistic guide to amassing wealth. Templar delineates a set of rules, covering a spectrum from foundational money beliefs to intricate investment strategies. He accentuates the pillars of consistency, unwavering discipline, and the quest for knowledge in one's wealth-building journey.
Tags: List of Books,Investment,