India and China, destined for what? (Jun 2020)

There is a terminology called ‘Thucydides trap’ that is mentioned in the book called ‘Destined for War’, written by Graham Allison, which tracked the evolution of countries and presented how countries [may] find themselves eventually in the situation of war. The book is however oriented on the conditions of USA, however, we would like to have some liberties in the name of expression and free thinking. 

Last week we saw armies of two nations, most populous, oldest civilisations of the world, both nuclear powers, with two largest standing armies in the world, both aim to be the superpowers, and the soldiers were pelting stones at each other. Ironic. Question is, what is it that brings India and China at tussle with each other? Why this conflict at this time? What are several theories behind the tussle, reported in the array of media reports? And most importantly, where is this heading?

Destiny has a very interesting way of presenting itself, depends if you believe on it. India and China are two of the oldest civilisations, with ancient cultural links. The sea voyages of Rajaraja Chola are well known in the India and ancient China relations. However, pinnacle of relations between both civilization was when Hiuen Tsang, who was a Chinese traveller visited India to research about Buddhism and exported Buddhism in China about 1400 years ago from today [2020]. Hiuen Tsang was born in Xiang, which is the birthplace of current Chinese President Xi Jinping. While Hiuen Tsang was travelling all of the India, the last place he visited in India was Vadnagar, which is birthplace of our current Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 
Narendra Modi also happens to be the first and only Chief Minister of any Indian state to have received State welcome from China, in 2013. If his visits to China, since he was Chief Minister of Gujarat is considered, then he is the only political leader in India to have visited China, ever. And yet, both of the leaders of two old civilisations, who also happen to be proud of their heritage, are in front of each other, in confrontation. This phenomenon is explained by the Thucydides Trap, which we will explain as soon as we cover very brief history of India and China. 

China, after a long and bloody civil war, emerged as a unified (depends how you look at Taiwan) country in 1948. It adopted the Communist regime, and cut away itself from all the cultural and religious heritage. But as it is said about China, ‘’China has habit of changing its ruler rather than being changed by it’’, the Chinese economy and its culture opened in 1978, when Deng Xiaoping called for liberalization and globalization in China. China divorced itself from so-called socialist policies, both economically and culturally, and became a capitalist economy (in practical sense). The growth of China happened so fast that, “we didn’t even get the time to be astonished”, as put forward by the President of Czech Republic. 

Now let’s look at India. India got independence in 1947, adopted socialist policies like China. Only difference is that China opened and globalized its economy in 1978, India did it in 1991, when India had got almost bankrupt. In these 14 years, China had surpassed India by 50 years, even with the smallest estimations. After 1991, however, India ran with rapid speed. Continuous FDI in India, rise of Indian IT sector, Nuclear test in 1999, rapid infrastructure development, continuously alleviating people from poverty. Suddenly India was seen as a rising power in Asia, which can counter Chinese rise, and that’s where Thucydides Trap comes into play. 
According to this theory, every powerful country ends up in a war with the country which is rising and seen as the replacement of the powerful country. Harvard University did a research on Thucydides trap, in which it was found that 12 times, in the history, countries end up fighting with each other over the question of who will be the power centre. And every time, neither the powerful country and rising country initiated the war, but it was initiated by someone else and both ended up in war. 

If we look at the similarities in the current leaders of China and India, there are too many similarities. Both enjoy unparalleled devotion in their respective parties, both are politically stable, both are ambitious, both are target oriented, both are clear about what they want, both seem to be interested in acquiring the central position in the international affairs. Even Xi Jinping had stated it that China will be No. 1 country in 2049, when they will complete 100th anniversary of Chinese revolution. You can not believe that something similar will not be there in Narendra Modi’s mind, Afterall he is brought up in an organization which has seen the dream of making India a “Vishwa guru”.

A game of Chess 

The rise of both the countries can be traced on a game of chess. Chess game has three components – opening, middle game and endgame. Both countries have made their openings. Both have declared their intentions. Both have made progress in that direction as well. China has an advantage, as it made few moves earlier than India. However, the game has matured now. Now both countries are in the middle game. And like all the middle games of Chess, this game is too all about securing most suitable and strategic positions. In the middle game, every player wants to place his pieces on a place from where he can launch an attack most efficiently in the end game. China wanted to have an infrastructure at Doklam, which was quickly halted by the Indian interventions. India, after scrapping Article 370, incorporating whole Ladakh in Indian map, presenting forecasts of whole of the Ladakh, and then ramping up the infrastructure along LAC has conveyed clear messages, at least as far as the Chinese perception is concerned. Therefore, China at all cost wants to halt all those developments by India, which can secure strategic locations for India. Be it Ladakh or be it Kalapani issue raised by Nepal on the instigation of China. 

How the Endgame will turn out to be? 

This is something no one knows. At least not when world is facing, all of a sudden, unprecedented uncertainty. All we can wish that both countries end up with a draw in this match and co-exist together, like all great civilizations do. The rest will be shaped by the destiny. As I said it earlier in the article, destiny has a very strange way of presenting itself. 
Credits: Shubham Rajput