Tuesday, February 6, 2018

48 Laws of Power


The 48 Laws of Power
by Robert Greene (author of "33 Strategies of War") and Joost Elffers



Law 1
Never Outshine the Master
Always make those above you feel comfortably superior. In your desire to please or impress them, do not go too far in displaying your talents or you might accomplish the opposite – inspire fear and insecurity. Make your masters appear more brilliant than they are and you will attain the heights of power.

Reversal:
You cannot worry about upsetting every person you come across, but you must be selectively cruel. If your superior is a falling star, there is nothing to fear from outshining him.

Law 2
Never put too Much Trust in Friends, Learn how to use Enemies
Be wary of friends-they will betray you more quickly, for they are easily aroused to envy. They also become spoiled and tyrannical. But hire a former enemy and he will be more loyal than a friend, because he has more to prove. In fact, you have more to fear from friends than from enemies. If you have no enemies, find a way to make them.

Law 3
Conceal your Intentions
Keep people off-balance and in the dark by never revealing the purpose behind your actions. If they have no clue what you are up to, they cannot prepare a defense. Guide them far enough down the wrong path, envelope them in enough smoke, and by the time they realize your intentions, it will be too late.

Law 4
Always Say Less than Necessary
When you are trying to impress people with words, the more you say, the more common you appear, and the less in control. Even if you are saying something banal, it will seem original if you make it vague, open-ended, and sphinxlike. Powerful people impress and intimidate by saying less. The more you say, the more likely you are to say something foolish.

Law 5
So Much Depends on Reputation – Guard it with your Life
Reputation is the cornerstone of power. Through reputation alone you can intimidate and win; once you slip, however, you are vulnerable, and will be attacked on all sides. Make your reputation unassailable. Always be alert to potential attacks and thwart them before they happen. Meanwhile, learn to destroy your enemies by opening holes in their own reputations.
Then stand aside and let public opinion hang them.

Law 6
Court Attention at all Cost
Everything is judged by its appearance; what is unseen counts for nothing. Never let yourself get lost in the crowd, then, or buried in oblivion. Stand out. Be conspicuous, at all cost. Make yourself a magnet of attention by appearing larger, more colorful, more mysterious, than the bland and timid masses.

Law 7
Get others to do the Work for you, but Always Take the Credit
Use the wisdom, knowledge, and legwork of other people to further your own cause. Not only will such assistance save you valuable time and energy, it will give you a godlike aura of efficiency and speed. In the end your helpers will be forgotten and you will be remembered.
Never do yourself what others can do for you.

Law 8
Make other People come to you – use Bait if Necessary
When you force the other person to act, you are the one in control. It is always better to make your opponent come to you, abandoning his own plans in the process. Lure him with fabulous gains – then attack. You hold the cards.

Law 9
Win through your Actions, Never through Argument
Any momentary triumph you think gained through argument is really a Pyrrhic victory: The resentment and ill will you stir up is stronger and lasts longer than any momentary change of opinion. It is much more powerful to get others to agree with you through your actions, without saying a word. Demonstrate, do not explicate.

Law 10
Infection: Avoid the Unhappy and Unlucky
You can die from someone else’s misery – emotional states are as infectious as disease. You may feel you are helping the drowning man but you are only precipitating your own disaster. The unfortunate sometimes draw misfortune on themselves; they will also draw it on you.
Associate with the happy and fortunate instead.

Law 11
Learn to Keep People Dependent on You
To maintain your independence you must always be needed and wanted. The more you are relied on, the more freedom you have. Make people depend on you for their happiness and prosperity and you have nothing to fear. Never teach them enough so that they can do without you.

Law 12
Use Selective Honesty and Generosity to Disarm your Victim
One sincere and honest move will cover over dozens of dishonest ones. Open-hearted gestures of honesty and generosity bring down the guard of even the most suspicious people. Once your selective honesty opens a hole in their armor, you can deceive and manipulate them at will. A timely gift – a Trojan horse – will serve the same purpose.

Law 13
When Asking for Help, Appeal to People’s Self-Interest,
Never to their Mercy or Gratitude
If you need to turn to an ally for help, do not bother to remind him of your past assistance and good deeds. He will find a way to ignore you. Instead, uncover something in your request, or in your alliance with him, that will benefit him, and emphasize it out of all proportion. He will respond enthusiastically when he sees something to be gained for himself.

Law 14
Pose as a Friend, Work as a Spy
Knowing about your rival is critical. Use spies to gather valuable information that will keep you a step ahead. Better still: Play the spy yourself. In polite social encounters, learn to probe. Ask indirect questions to get people to reveal their weaknesses and intentions. There is no occasion that is not an opportunity for artful spying.

Law 15
Crush your Enemy Totally
All great leaders since Moses have known that a feared enemy must be crushed completely. (Sometimes they have learned this the hard way.) If one ember is left alight, no matter how dimly it smolders, a fire will eventually break out. More is lost through stopping halfway than through total annihilation: The enemy will recover, and will seek revenge. Crush him, not only in body but in spirit.

Law 16
Use Absence to Increase Respect and Honor
Too much circulation makes the price go down: The more you are seen and heard from, the more common you appear. If you are already established in a group, temporary withdrawal from it will make you more talked about, even more admired. You must learn when to leave. Create value through scarcity.

Law 17
Keep Others in Suspended Terror: Cultivate an Air of Unpredictability
Humans are creatures of habit with an insatiable need to see familiarity in other people’s actions. Your predictability gives them a sense of control. Turn the tables: Be deliberately unpredictable. Behavior that seems to have no consistency or purpose will keep them offbalance, and they will wear themselves out trying to explain your moves. Taken to an extreme, this strategy can intimidate and terrorize.

Law 18
Do Not Build Fortresses to Protect Yourself – Isolation is Dangerous
The world is dangerous and enemies are everywhere – everyone has to protect themselves. A fortress seems the safest. But isolation exposes you to more dangers than it protects you from – it cuts you off from valuable information, it makes you conspicuous and an easy target. Better to circulate among people find allies, mingle. You are shielded from your enemies by the crowd.

Law 19
Know Who You’re Dealing with – Do Not Offend the Wrong Person
There are many different kinds of people in the world, and you can never assume that everyone will react to your strategies in the same way. Deceive or outmaneuver some people and they will spend the rest of their lives seeking revenge. They are wolves in lambs’ clothing. Choose your victims and opponents carefully, then – never offend or deceive the wrong person.

Law 20
Do Not Commit to Anyone
It is the fool who always rushes to take sides. Do not commit to any side or cause but yourself. By maintaining your independence, you become the master of others – playing people against one another, making them pursue you.

Law 21
Play a Sucker to Catch a Sucker – Seem Dumber than your Mark
No one likes feeling stupider than the next persons. The trick, is to make your victims feel smart – and not just smart, but smarter than you are. Once convinced of this, they will never suspect that you may have ulterior motives.

Law 22
Use the Surrender Tactic: Transform Weakness into Power
When you are weaker, never fight for honor’s sake; choose surrender instead. Surrender gives you time to recover, time to torment and irritate your conqueror, time to wait for his power to wane. Do not give him the satisfaction of fighting and defeating you – surrender first. By turning the other check you infuriate and unsettle him. Make surrender a tool of power.

Law 23
Concentrate Your Forces
Conserve your forces and energies by keeping them concentrated at their strongest point. You gain more by finding a rich mine and mining it deeper, than by flitting from one shallow mine to another – intensity defeats extensity every time. When looking for sources of power to elevate you, find the one key patron, the fat cow who will give you milk for a long time to come.

Law 24
Play the Perfect Courtier
The perfect courtier thrives in a world where everything revolves around power and political dexterity. He has mastered the art of indirection; he flatters, yields to superiors, and asserts power over others in the mot oblique and graceful manner. Learn and apply the laws of courtiership and there will be no limit to how far you can rise in the court.

Law 25
Re-Create Yourself
Do not accept the roles that society foists on you. Re-create yourself by forging a new identity, one that commands attention and never bores the audience. Be the master of your own image rather than letting others define if for you. Incorporate dramatic devices into your public gestures and actions – your power will be enhanced and your character will seem larger than life.

Law 26
Keep Your Hands Clean
You must seem a paragon of civility and efficiency: Your hands are never soiled by mistakes and nasty deeds. Maintain such a spotless appearance by using others as scapegoats and cat’s-paws to disguise your involvement.

Law 27
Play on People’s Need to Believe to Create a Cultlike Following
People have an overwhelming desire to believe in something. Become the focal point of such desire by offering them a cause, a new faith to follow. Keep your words vague but full of promise; emphasize enthusiasm over rationality and clear thinking. Give your new disciples rituals to perform, ask them to make sacrifices on your behalf. In the absence of organized religion and grand causes, your new belief system will bring you untold power.

Law 28
Enter Action with Boldness
If you are unsure of a course of action, do not attempt it. Your doubts and hesitations will infect your execution. Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity. Everyone admires the bold; no one honors the timid.

Law 29
Plan All the Way to the End
The ending is everything. Plan all the way to it, taking into account all the possible consequences, obstacles, and twists of fortune that might reverse your hard work and give the glory to others. By planning to the end you will not be overwhelmed by circumstances and you will know when to stop. Gently guide fortune and help determine the future by thinking far ahead.

Law 30
Make your Accomplishments Seem Effortless
Your actions must seem natural and executed with ease. All the toil and practice that go into them, and also all the clever tricks, must be concealed. When you act, act effortlessly, as if you could do much more. Avoid the temptation of revealing how hard you work – it only raises questions. Teach no one your tricks or they will be used against you.

Law 31
Control the Options: Get Others to Play with the Cards you Deal
The best deceptions are the ones that seem to give the other person a choice: Your victims feel they are in control, but are actually your puppets. Give people options that come out in your favor whichever one they choose. Force them to make choices between the lesser of two evils, both of which serve your purpose. Put them on the horns of a dilemma: They are gored wherever they turn.

Law 32
Play to People’s Fantasies
The truth is often avoided because it is ugly and unpleasant. Never appeal to truth and reality unless you are prepared for the anger that comes for disenchantment. Life is so harsh and distressing that people who can manufacture romance or conjure up fantasy are like oases in the desert: Everyone flocks to them. There is great power in tapping into the fantasies of the masses.

Law 33
Discover Each Man’s Thumbscrew
Everyone has a weakness, a gap in the castle wall. That weakness is usual y an insecurity, an uncontrollable emotion or need; it can also be a small secret pleasure. Either way, once found, it is a thumbscrew you can turn to your advantage.

Law 34
Be Royal in your Own Fashion: Act like a King to be treated like one
The way you carry yourself will often determine how you are treated; In the long run, appearing vulgar or common will make people disrespect you. For a king respects himself and inspires the same sentiment in others. By acting regally and confident of your powers, you make yourself seem destined to wear a crown.

Law 35
Master the Art of Timing
Never seem to be in a hurry – hurrying betrays a lack of control over yourself, and over time. Always seem patient, as if you know that everything will come to you eventually. Become a detective of the right moment; sniff out the spirit of the times, the trends that will carry you to power. Learn to stand back when the time is not yet ripe, and to strike fiercely when it has reached fruition.

Law 36
Disdain Things you cannot have: Ignoring them is the best Revenge
By acknowledging a petty problem you give it existence and credibility. The more attention you pay an enemy, the stronger you make him; and a small mistake is often made worse and more visible when you try to fix it. It is sometimes best to leave things alone. If there is something you want but cannot have, show contempt for it. The less interest you reveal, the more superior you seem.

Law 37
Create Compelling Spectacles
Striking imagery and grand symbolic gestures create the aura of power – everyone responds to them. Stage spectacles for those around you, then full of arresting visuals and radiant symbols that heighten your presence. Dazzled by appearances, no one will notice what you are really doing.

Law 38
Think as you like but Behave like others
If you make a show of going against the times, flaunting your unconventional ideas and unorthodox ways, people will think that you only want attention and that you look down upon them. They will find a way to punish you for making them feel inferior. It is far safer to blend in and nurture the common touch. Share your originality only with tolerant friends and those who are sure to appreciate your uniqueness.

Law 39
Stir up Waters to Catch Fish
Anger and emotion are strategically counterproductive. You must always stay calm and objective. But if you can make your enemies angry while staying calm yourself, you gain a decided advantage. Put your enemies off-balance: Find the chink in their vanity through which you can rattle them and you hold the strings.

Law 40
Despise the Free Lunch
What is offered for free is dangerous – it usually involves either a trick or a hidden obligation. What has worth is worth paying for. By paying your own way you stay clear of gratitude, guilt, and deceit. It is also often wise to pay the full price – there is no cutting corners with excellence. Be lavish with your money and keep it circulating, for generosity is a sign and a magnet for power.

Law 41
Avoid Stepping into a Great Man’s Shoes
What happens first always appears better and more original than what comes after. If you succeed a great man or have a famous parent, you will have to accomplish double their achievements to outshine them. Do not get lost in their shadow, or stuck in a past not of your own making: Establish your own name and identity by changing course. Slay the overbearing father, disparage his legacy, and gain power by shining in your own way.

Law 42
Strike the Shepherd and the Sheep will Scatter
Trouble can often be traced to a single strong individual – the stirrer, the arrogant underling, the poisoned of goodwill. If you allow such people room to operate, others will succumb to their influence. Do not wait for the troubles they cause to multiply, do not try to negotiate with them – they are irredeemable. Neutralize their influence by isolating or banishing them. Strike at the source of the trouble and the sheep will scatter.

Law 43
Work on the Hearts and Minds of Others
Coercion creates a reaction that will eventually work against you. You must seduce others into wanting to move in your direction. A person you have seduced becomes your loyal pawn. And the way to seduce others is to operate on their individual psychologies and weaknesses. Soften up the resistant by working on their emotions, playing on what they hold dear and what they fear. Ignore the hearts and minds of others and they will grow to hate you.

Law 44
Disarm and Infuriate with the Mirror Effect
The mirror reflects reality, but it is also the perfect tool for deception: When you mirror your enemies, doing exactly as they do, they cannot figure out your strategy. The Mirror Effect mocks and humiliates them, making them overreact. By holding up a mirror to their psyches, you seduce them with the illusion that you share their values; by holding up a mirror to their actions, you teach them a lesson. Few can resist the power of Mirror Effect.

Law 45
Preach the Need for Change, but Never Reform too much at Once
Everyone understands the need for change in the abstract, but on the day-to-day level people are creatures of habit. Too much innovation is traumatic, and will lead to revolt. If you are new to a position of power, or an outsider trying to build a power base, make a show of respecting the old way of doing things. If change is necessary, make it feel like a gentle improvement on the past.

Law 46
Never appear too Perfect
Appearing better than others is always dangerous, but most dangerous of all is to appear to have no faults or weaknesses. Envy creates silent enemies. It is smart to occasionally display defects, and admit to harmless vices, in order to deflect envy and appear more human and approachable. Only gods and the dead can seem perfect with impunity.

Law 47
Do not go Past the Mark you Aimed for; In Victory, Learn when to Stop
The moment of victory is often the moment of greatest peril. In the heat of victory, arrogance and overconfidence can push you past the goal you had aimed for, and by going too far, you make more enemies than you defeat. Do not allow success to go to your head. There is no substitute for strategy and careful planning. Set a goal, and when you reach it, stop.

Law 48
Assume Formlessness
By taking a shape, by having a visible plan, you open yourself to attack. Instead of taking a form for your enemy to grasp, keep yourself adaptable and on the move. Accept the fact that nothing is certain and no law is fixed. The best way to protect yourself is to be as fluid and formless as water; never bet on stability or lasting order. Everything changes.

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

5 Big Bitcoin Crashes




As Bitcoin takes another fall ahead crackdown by South Korean government, presented here are Bitcoin price data from last ten days:

Download CSV File

5 Big Bitcoin Crashes

1: The Meltdown of April 2013


What happened: In the spring of 2013, a ghastly collapse saw the price of bitcoin fall from $233 to $67—overnight! That’s a 71% drop. It would take seven months to recover.



Why it happened: The crash of April 2013 came after bitcoin’s first big brush with the mainstream. The currency had never crossed $30 before 2013 but a flood of media coverage helped drive it well above $200. The crash, which followed two smaller jolts in March, reflected in part a correction to speculator exuberance. Some also attribute it to an outage at Mt. Gox, the most popular (at the time) exchange for buying and selling bitcoin.

2: Pop Goes the 2013 Bubble


What happened: Bitcoin spent most of the rest of 2013 around $120. Then prices jumped ten-fold in the fall: Bitcoin hit a high of $1,150 in late November and then the party ended abruptly, and prices tumbled below $500 by mid-December. It would take more than for years for bitcoin to reach $1,000 again.



Why it happened: The crazy price run up of late 2013 appears to have been a classic bubble as amateur investors rushed into bitcoin for the first time. The frenzy was helped by regulators taking a more positive view of bitcoin (in the early years, most regarded it as criminal—if they had heard of it at all), and by U.S. exchanges like Coinbase that made it easier for average people to buy bitcoin. When the bubble popped, prices would likely have recovered more quickly but for what happened next.

3: The Mt. Gox Calamity of 2014


What happened: The price of bitcoin had been making big gains after the bubble pop of 2013 when, in February, the price fell from $867 to $439 (a 49% drop). This triggered a doldrums period for bitcoin that lasted until late 2016.



Why it happened: The February crash came after the operator of Mt. Gox—long the go-to trading place for longtime bitcoin owners—announced the exchange had been hacked. On February 7, the exchange halted withdrawals, and later revealed thieves had made off with 850,000 bitcoins (which would be worth around $3.5 billion today). The incident, which created existential doubts about the security of bitcoin and undercut liquidity in the currency, likely harmed the currency’s value for years.

4: Summer Selloff of 2017


What happened: Fast forward to the go-go days of 2017. In early January, bitcoin broke $1,000 for the first time in years and started climbing like crazy. By June, the currency nudged $3,000—but then lurched back all of a sudden, falling 36% to $1,869 by mid-July.



Why it happened: Even as bitcoin boomed anew, many worried something was wrong with the code under the hood. Specifically, bitcoin was slow compared to other crypto-currencies like Litecoin and Ethereum, and its core developers couldn’t come to an agreement on how to update the software. This raised the prospect of a “fork” (which would produce two versions of bitcoin’s canonical blockchain) and future schisms, which in turn appeared to give rise to market jitters and the big fall in price. Ironically, such a fork did materialize in August in the form of rival Bitcoin Cash—but this seems to have done no longterm harm to bitcoin.

5: The Great China Chill


What happened: After fears over the fork subsided, bitcoin went on another crazy tear: It climbed close to $5,000 at the start of September before plunging 37% by September 15, shaving off over $30 billion from bitcoin’s total market cap in the process. A recovery is already underway, though, as prices climbed above $4,000 three days later.



Why it happened: While bitcoin price moves can be inscrutable, the prime reason for the latest crash can be summed up in one word: China. After it cracked down on so-called “Initial Coin Offerings,” there have been widespread rumors the Communist government is going to ban trading crypto-currency altogether. In response, the most prominent exchange, BTCChina, said it will end trading this month. This crackdown, combined with questions about China’s de facto monopoly on bitcoin mining, explains the recent price swoon.



Saturday, January 6, 2018

Bitcoin Price History


This website "https://bitcointicker.co/" gives bitcoin price history very well but if you are still interested in doing your own analysis, here are bitcoin price history sheets in CSV format that can be opened in MS Excel for user friendly tabular view. The prices are 'Last price' in US Dollars, time is Indian Standard Time (UTC+05:30) and frequency is one entry every 20 seconds.
  1. Chart: From 6-Jan-2018 0200 to 8-Jan-2018 1300

  2. Chart: From 6-Jan-2018 0200 to 9-Jan-2018
    CSV: From 6-Jan-2018 0200 to 9-Jan-2018
  3. CSV: From 6-Jan-2018 0200 to 11-Jan-2018 2130
  4. CSV: From 6-Jan-2018 0200 to 5-Mar-2018 0240

The caveat here is that: bitcoin's price is going to increase long as people buy it as a tool of investment instead of using it as currency. The future of Bitcoin depends on how fast it can be accepted as a currency in people's shared imagination. With the supply already constrained and people now storing it, it ceases to become a currency and becomes a speculative empty asset.

All time price history data with 'daily' frequency, downloaded from here:
All time data (From: 02-Feb-12 Till: 09-Jan-18) in CSV Format

Friday, January 5, 2018

How to create a cult in five easy steps





Step 1: Keep It Vague; Keep It Simple.
To create a cult you must first attract attention. This you should do not through actions, which are too clear and readable, but through words, which are hazy and deceptive. Your initial speeches, conversations, and interviews must include two elements: on the one hand the promise of something great and transformative, and on the other a total vagueness. This combination will stimulate all kinds of hazy dreams in your listeners, who will make their own connections and see what they want to see.
To make your vagueness attractive, use words of great resonance but cloudy meaning, words full of heat and enthusiasm. Fancy titles for simple things are helpful, as are the use of numbers and the creation of new words for vague concepts. All of these create the impression of  specialized knowledge, giving you a veneer of profundity. By the same token, try to make the subject of your cult new and fresh, so that few will understand it. Done right, the combination of vague promises, cloudy but alluring concepts, and fiery enthusiasm will stir people’s souls and a group will form around you. Talk too vaguely and you have no credibility. But it is more dangerous to be specific. If you explain in detail the benefits people will gain by following your cult, you will be expected to satisfy them.
As a corollary  to its vagueness your appeal should also be simple. Most people’s problems have complex causes: deep-rooted neurosis, interconnected social factors, roots that go way back in time and are exceedingly hard to unravel. Few, however, have the patience to deal  with this; most people want to hear that a simple solution will cure their problems. The ability to offer this kind of solution will give you great power and build you a following.
Instead of the complicated explanations of real life, return to the primitive solutions of our ancestors, to good old country remedies, to mysterious panaceas.

Step 2: Emphasize the Visual and the Sensual over the Intellectual.
Once people have begun to gather around you, two dangers will present themselves: boredom and skepticism. Boredom will make people go elsewhere; skepticism will allow them the distance to think rationally about whatever it is you are offering, blowing away the mist you have artfully created and revealing your ideas for what they are. You need to amuse the bored, then, and ward off the cynics. The best way to do this is through theater, or other devices of its kind. Surround yourself with luxury, dazzle your followers with visual splendor, fill their  eyes with spectacle. Not only will this keep them from seeing the ridiculousness of your ideas, the holes in your belief system, it will also attract more attention, more followers. Appeal to all the senses: Use incense for scent, soothing music for hearing, colorful charts and graphs for the eye. You might even tickle the mind, perhaps by using new technological gadgets to give your cult a pseudo-scientific veneer—as long as you do not make any one really think. Use the exotic—distant cultures, strange customs—to create theatrical effects, and to make the most banal and ordinary affairs seem signs of something extraordinary.

Step 3: Borrow the Forms of Organized Religion to Structure the Group.
Your cult like following is growing; it is time to organize it. Find a way both elevating and comforting. Organized religions have long held unquestioned authority for large numbers of people, and continue to do so in our supposedly secular age. And even if the religion it self has faded some, its forms still resonate with power. The lofty and holy associations of organized religion can be endlessly exploited. Create rituals for your followers; organize them into a hierarchy, ranking them in grades of sanctity, and giving them names and titles that resound
with religious overtones; ask them for sacrifices that will fill your coffers and increase your power. To emphasize your gathering’s quasi - religious nature, talk and act like a prophet. You are not a dictator, after all; you are a priest, a guru, a sage, a shaman, or any other word that hides your real power in them mist of religion.

Step 4: Disguise Your Source of Income.
Your group has grown, and you have structured it in a church like form. Your coffers are beginning to fill with your followers’ money. Yet you must never be seen as hungry for money and the power it brings. It is at this moment that you must disguise the source of your income. Your followers want to believe that if they follow you all sorts of good things will fall in to their lap. By surrounding yourself with luxury you become living proof of the soundness of your belief system.
Never reveal that your wealth actually comes from your followers’ pockets; instead, make it seem to come from the truth of your methods. Followers will copy your each and every move in the belief that it will bring them the same results, and their imitative enthusiasm will blind them to the charlatan nature of your wealth.

Step 5: Set Up an Us-Versus-Them Dynamic.
The group is now large and thriving, a magnet attracting more and more particles. If you are not careful, though, inertia will set in, and time and boredom will demagnetize the group. To keep your followers united, you must now do what all religions and belief systems have done:  create an us-versus-them dynamic.
First, make sure your followers believe they are part of an exclusive club, unified by a bond of common goals. Then, to strengthen this bond, manufacture the notion of a devious enemy out to ruin you. There is a force of nonbelievers that will do any thing to stop you. Any outsider who tries to reveal the charlatan nature of your belief system can now be described as a member of this devious force.
If you have no enemies, invent one. Given a straw man to react against, your followers will tighten and cohere. They have your cause to believe in and infidels to destroy.

Monday, January 1, 2018

Multi-party political system – strategies and success stories!




A multi-party system is a system in which multiple political parties across the political spectrum run for national election, and all have the capacity to gain control of government offices, separately or in coalition.[1] Apart from one-party-dominant and two-party systems, multi-party systems tend to be more common in parliamentary systems than presidential systems and far more common in countries that use proportional representation compared to countries that use first-past-the-post elections.

Decoding Jargon:
A first-past-the-post (FPTP) voting method is one in which voters indicate on a ballot the candidate of their choice, and the candidate who receives the most votes wins: this is described as winner takes all. First-past-the-post voting is a plurality voting method. FPTP is a common, but not universal, feature of electoral systems with single-member electoral divisions, and is practiced in close to one third of countries. Notable examples include Canada, India, Pakistan, the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as most of their current or former colonies and protectorates.

Proportional representation (PR) characterizes electoral systems by which divisions in an electorate are reflected proportionately in the elected body. If n% of the electorate support a particular political party, then roughly n% of seats will be won by that party.

Argentina, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Croatia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Lebanon, Mexico, Moldova, Nepal, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, the Philippines, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tunisia and Ukraine are examples of nations that have used a multi-party system effectively in their democracies. In these countries, usually no single party has a parliamentary majority by itself. Instead, multiple political parties are compelled to form compromised coalitions for the purpose of developing power blocks and attaining legitimate mandate.

- Wikipedia

Fun Fact:
There are only two major political parties in the United States. This is a winner-take-all system because there is no reward for the party or candidate that finishes second. As a result, two political parties usually dominate plurality electoral systems to the disadvantage of smaller third parties, just as the Democrats and the Republicans dominate the American political system.

- Google Search (Why are there only two major political parties in the United States?)
- SparkNotes: Political Parties: The American Two-Party System (http://www.sparknotes.com/us-government-and-politics/american-government/political-parties/section2.rhtml)

Two major levels for political parties in India:

National Party

A registered party is recognised as a National Party only if it fulfils any one of the following three conditions:
  1. The party wins 2% of seats in the Lok Sabha (as of 2014, 11 seats) from at least 3 different States.
  2. At a General Election to Lok Sabha or Legislative Assembly, the party polls 6% of votes in four States and in addition it wins 4 Lok Sabha seats.
  3. A party gets recognition as a State Party in four or more states.
7 Recognised national parties as of 2 September 2016 arranged alphabetically
No.
Name
Abbreviation
Foundation
year
Current leader(s)[D]
Party symbol
Headquarters
1
AITC
1998
Flowers & grass
36G Tapsia Road, Kolkata - 700039, (West Bengal)
2
BSP
1984
Elephant
12, Gurudwara Rakabganj Road, New Delhi - 11000, (Delhi)
3
BJP
1980
Lotus
11 Ashoka Road,
New Delhi - 11000, (Delhi)
4
CPI
1925
Ears of corn and sickle
Indrajit Gupta Marg, New Delhi - 110002, (Delhi)
5
CPI (M)
1964
Hammer sickle and star
Bhai Vir Singh Marg, New Delhi - 110 001, (Delhi)
6
INC
1885
Hand
10, Bishmabhar Marg, New Delhi - 110001, (Delhi)
7
NCP
1999
Clock
10, Bishmabhar Marg, New Delhi - 110001, (Delhi)

State Party

A registered party has to fulfill any of the following conditions for recognition as a State Party:
  1. A party should win minimum three percent of the total number of seats or a minimum of three seats in the Legislative Assembly.
  2. A party should win at least one seat in the Lok Sabha for every 25 seats or any fraction thereof allotted to that State at a general election to the Lok Sabha.
  3. A political party should secure at least six percent of the total valid votes polled during general election to a Lok Sabha or State Legislative Assembly and should, in addition, win at least one Lok Sabha, and two Legislative Assembly seats in that election,
  4. Under the liberalized criteria, one more clause that it will be eligible for recognition as State Party if it secures 8% or more of the total valid votes polled in the State.addition to one seat in any state.
There are 50 recognised state parties as of 5 May 2017 in India. Among them is “Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), founded in 2012, lead by Arvind Kejriwal with recognition in Delhi and Punjab.”

- Wikipedia

Success stories

1. Emmanuel Macron, the President of France (assumed office on 14 May 2017) and founder of political party “La République En Marche! (2016–present)”

Macron founded the En Marche! (English translation: "Forward!", "Onward!", "Working!" or "On The Move!"), a centrist political movement in April 2016. Macron describes La République En Marche! to be a progressive movement, uniting both the left and the right.

Macron founded the independent political party, En Marche!, in Amiens on 6 April 2016. A liberal, progressive political movement that gathered huge media coverage when it was first established, the party and Macron were both reprimanded by President Hollande and the question of Macron's loyalty to the government was risen.

Before resigning from the government in August 2016 to launch a bid in the 2017 presidential election, Macron had held positions like Inspector of Finances, Deputy Secretary-General of the Élysée, Minister of Economy and Finance.

In November 2016, Macron declared that he would run in the election under the banner of En Marche!, a centrist political movement he founded in April 2016.
Macron won the election on 7 May 2017 beating the Front National’s Marine Le Pen by a landslide 66.1% of the second-round vote.

Political positions:
Macron has been described by some observers as a social liberal and by others as a social democrat. During his time in the French Socialist Party, he supported the party's centrist wing, whose political stance has been associated with "third way" policies advanced by Bill Clinton, Tony Blair and Gerhard Schröder, and whose leading spokesman has been former prime minister Manuel Valls. Overall Macron is largely seen as a centrist.

Decoding Jargon:
Centrism:
In politics, centrism, the centre or the center (American English) is a political outlook or specific position that involves acceptance or support of a balance of a degree of social equality and a degree of social hierarchy, while opposing political changes which would result in a significant shift of society either strongly to the left or the right.

Left-wing politics:
Left-wing politics supports social equality and egalitarianism, often in opposition to social hierarchy and social inequality.

Right-wing politics:
Right-wing politics hold that certain social orders and hierarchies are inevitable, natural, normal or desirable,[1][2][3] typically supporting this position on the basis of natural law, economics or tradition. Hierarchy and inequality may be viewed as natural results of traditional social differences or the competition in market economies. The term right-wing can generally refer to "the conservative or reactionary section of a political party or system".
The political terms "Left" and "Right" were first used during the French Revolution (1789–1799) and referred to seating arrangements in the French parliament: those who sat to the right of the chair of the parliamentary president were broadly supportive of the institutions of the monarchist Old Regime. The original Right in France was formed as a reaction against the "Left" and comprised those politicians supporting hierarchy, tradition and clericalism. The use of the expression la droite ("the right") became prominent in France after the restoration of the monarchy in 1815, when it was applied to the Ultra-royalists. The people of English-speaking countries did not apply the terms "right" and "left" to their own politics until the 20th century.



2. Arvind Kejriwal (born 16 August 1968) is an Indian politician and a former bureaucrat who is the current and 7th Chief Minister of Delhi since February 2015.

In 2012, he launched the Aam Aadmi Party, and the party won in the 2013 Delhi Legislative Assembly election. Following the election, he took office as the Chief Minister of Delhi on 28 December 2013. He resigned 49 days later, on 14 February 2014, stating he did so because of his minority government's inability to pass his proposed anti-corruption legislation due to a lack of support from other political parties.

In 2015, his party won the 2015 Delhi Assembly elections with a majority, obtaining 67 out of 70 assembly seats. On 14 February 2015, he was sworn in as Chief Minister for a second term after his party's victory in the Delhi Legislative Assembly election.


3. Bernie Sanders (United States Senator from Vermont (Incumbent) Assumed office on January 3, 2007)

Bernard Sanders (born September 8, 1941) is an American politician serving as the junior United States Senator from Vermont since 2007; he is the longest-serving independent in U.S. congressional history. Since his election to the House of Representatives in 1990, he has caucused with the Democratic Party, which has entitled him to congressional committee assignments and at times given Democrats a majority.

A self-described democratic socialist and a New Deal-era American progressive, Sanders is pro-labor and emphasizes reversing economic inequality. Many scholars consider his views to be more in line with social democracy.

Sanders was born and raised in the Brooklyn borough of New York City and graduated from the University of Chicago in 1964. While a student he was an active protest organizer for the Congress of Racial Equality and the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee during the Civil Rights Movement. After settling in Vermont in 1968, Sanders ran unsuccessful third-party campaigns for governor and U.S. senator in the early to mid-1970s. As an independent, he was elected mayor of Burlington—Vermont's most populous city of 42,417 in 2010—in 1981, by a margin of ten votes. He went on to be reelected as mayor three times. In 1990, he was elected to represent Vermont's at-large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives, where he co-founded the Congressional Progressive Caucus in 1991. He served as a congressman for 16 years before being elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006. In 2012, he was reelected with 71% of the popular vote.

Sanders announced his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination on April 30, 2015. Initially considered a long shot, Sanders won 23 primaries and caucuses and approximately 43% of pledged delegates to Clinton's 55%. His campaign was noted for its supporters' enthusiasm, as well as for his rejection of large donations from corporations, the financial industry, and any associated Super PAC. On July 12, 2016, Sanders formally endorsed Clinton in her unsuccessful general election campaign against Republican Donald Trump, while urging his supporters to continue the "political revolution" his campaign had begun.

Decoding Jargon:
Democratic socialism: is a political ideology that advocates political democracy alongside social ownership of the means of production with an emphasis on self-management or democratic management of economic institutions within a market socialist or decentralized socialist planned economy.

Means of production:
In economics and sociology, the means of production are physical, non-human and non-financial inputs used for the production of economic value: raw materials, the facilities, machinery and tools used in the production of goods. In the terminology of classical economics, the means of production are the "factors of production" minus financial capital and minus human capital.

Social ownership:
A form of collective ownership in which the control and organization of an industry, company, etc., are shared, especially by its workers or by the community at large.


Social ownership refers to the various forms of ownership for the means of production in socialist economic systems; encompassing public ownership, employee ownership, cooperative ownership, citizen ownership of equity and common ownership. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNy6-mVtVTo)


Sunday, December 24, 2017

Why there's value in cryptocurrency?



Interview transcript of Ari Paul (Blocktower capital, CIO) by Sara Silverstein (Business Insider):

Sara: Why do you fundamentally believe that there is value in this cyrptocurrency world?

Ari: So there are quite a few use cases. I think the biggest and clearest, and easiest to understand, is as a store of value that can't be censored and is resistant to seizure. And so, the really clear example of demand for this, that I see, is the offshore banking system, which is roughly 20 trillion dollars today. And it's not just people trying to dodge taxes. Apple, Amazon, every billionaire on the planet has wealth stored there. And firms like JP Morgan collect fees to offshore law abiding citizens' wealth. And people want to store their wealth securely, in a way that no single judge could freeze all of their assets, right. Amazon doesn't want their entire global business operation to be shut down by one judge in Brussels. They want to be able to go through a lengthy appeals process and keep their business operating. So cryptocurrency performs same task of the offshore banking, of keeping wealth secure an order of magnitude better. So we see massive real fundamental demand for this use case. 

Sara: And what other financial assets make sense to be on a decentralized database or why would they?

Ari: Yes, there's a huge distinction between the money use case, store of value, and the blockchain use case, for other assets. And I think it's useful to kind of separate those. So a blockchain makes a ton of sense to record in real-time legal title. So I was a treasury bond trader, for example, and an example in finance, that anyone who's traded treasuries is familier with, is: failure to deliver. So Goldman Sachs will sell a bond to Credit Suisse, who borrows it from JP Morgan, and the same bond in a day, might trade across 12 banks. And if one back office fails, they fail to make delivery of that bond, you get what's called a cascading failure to deliver. Because no one knows who actually owns the bond. And that can take weeks to fix. So imagine if you just have a shared database, a database that each of those banks held, that was kept accurate in real time and that no one could maliciously change or manipulate. You would know who owns what bonds and you might be able to eliminate half of the existing back offices in big banks. So a massive cost savings. 

Sara: So you belive in the blockchain as having a value in the future for us? How does that translate into value for cryptocurrency? 

Ari: So, yeah. I think a really useful idea - a blockchain is just a type of database. It's a distributed ledger that in some use cases, like for a banking back office, is kind of like a database upgrade. So massive improvements in efficiency, but probably not that transformative or disruptive. When you take a blockchain and you make it public and decentralized, and then you add money to that - you add a cryptocurrency - then you're looking at something that is that first use case, that offshore banking system, that I think is fundamentally disruptive. And disruptive financially, economically, and even potentially politically. 

Sara: Do you see any institutional money in cryptocurrency right now, and is that going to be a huge level for these values to skyrocket? 

Ari: Absolutely, so we've seen this really clear path of adoption. The earliest adopters were engineers, self-described cypherpunks. Then you had a wave of kind of Silicon Valley tech elites, people who would have a successful exit, who had a high risk tolerance, and who liked taking risk on new technology. Then you had kind of an early wave of maybe people like myself with a little more of a Wall Street background, as well as high net worth individuals, who are a little bit risk-tolerant. What we're seeing right now is a shift from small family offices to big. Venture capital firms are basically all in. So most of the famous venture capital firms, not only have they been in the space for a few years, they're now directly investing in new cryptocurrencies. And of the 10 largest family offices in the U.S. at least seven of them own cryptocurrency. Maybe more, but seven I'm sure of. So the next wave is - in kind of the institutionalization of the space - is we're having the CME futures that are likely to launch next month. There's a huge number of entrants who want to invest in cryptocurrency, but can't. For security reasons, operational reasons, regulatory, but they can easily buy a future, that's on the CME. So that opens the door to groups like endowmments and pensions. So far, endowmments and pensions own zero cryptocurrency. You have an asset that has been the highest returning assest class over the last eight years and it's uncorrelated to everything else. And while there's certainly debate over the future prospects, it lines up as the holy grail for a portfolio. In the sense that, if you size it appropriately, if you size it small, the risks are idiosyncratic. It actually reduces the rist of a portfolio. So endowmments and pensions, as they get comfortable with the space, in all aspects regulatory, compliance, as well as underwriting investment risk. They're going to get it. And that's a massive wall of money coming in to a relatively small asset class. 

Sara: And what do you think the timeline is for that?

Ari: I think the first endowmment is probably going to write a check in the next few months, a small check. Endowments won't be in size for probably six months and not in size by - from their perpective for probably 12 months. Pensions are probably 18 months away and the key - the reason given those dates is having thirst-party custody, that is legal qualified custodian, is a huge hurdle particularly for pensions. You have issue like ERISA, that are actual fiduciary challenges. And having a third-party qualified custodian, for many crypto assets, is probably something like 12 months away, maybe 18 months away. 

Friday, December 22, 2017

Bitcoin may be a bubble


"Bitcoin is a bubble."
"Maybe Bitcoin is a kind of a bubble."
"A dangerous, speculative bubble."
That might actually be true. This is Bitcoin's multiple price rising over the past three years.


Eight other famous asset bubbles, three years before they peaked and burst.


Bitcoin is riding right up to perhaps the most famous bubble of all, the Tulip Mania. And to be fair, it does have all the signs big signs of a bubble. The rapid pace of movements, a whole lot of speculation without sufficient understanding of the risks and people who would not otherwise invest are looking to get their skin in the Bitcoin game. The CBOE, CME Group, Nasdaq are even planning to launch Bitcoin Futures. The same move the Dutch pulled just before the crash in the 1630s. For every asset bubble it is the same story, otherwise level headed people will drive prices for certain assets to unexplainable heights whether that is the price of Beanie Babies, stocks, houses or perhaps cryptocurrencies. Since its inception the price of Bitcoin has gone up 50 fold, if it were to maintain that same rate of growth, its market capitalization would eclipse the US economy in the few years from now, that is why some experts are saying that Bitcoin's rapid and accelerating price appreciation is unsustainable. What it comes down to is the rate of returns, for stocks that is the dividends, in real estates we are looking at the rent, with bonds that is coupons, but for Bitcoin there is actually zero intrinsic value. It generates no income aside from an expectation of a more price appreciation. So it is valuable because people think it is valuable. Even if you do not even buy the whole bubble narrative, the veteran trader Art Cashin says 'the technicals do not lie, Bitcoin has gone parabolic so that usually does not end well'. It is pretty hard to ignore the math, the velocity of move does indicate the Bitcoin's price has gone parabolic and well, parabole moves just don't last.

Sunday, November 26, 2017

Thank You Readers!




These are the countries that we have reached so far:
# Country
1 India
2 United States
3 Brazil
5 Russia
6 Germany
7 Ukraine
8 Poland
9 Canada
10 Singapore
11 United Arab Emirates
12 Saudi Arabia
13 Pakistan
14 United Kingdom
15 Indonesia
16 Czechia
17 South Korea
18 Kazakhstan
19 Latvia
20 Ireland
21 France
22 Finland
23 Malaysia
24 Australia
25 Peru
26 New Zealand
 
Thanks You Readers!
Ashish Jain
ashishjainblogger@gmail.com