Global warming effects and predictions (Dated: Oct-2017)
1. Poorest
countries emit the least CO2, but affected by it the most
*Includes
countries with populations larger than two million
**Gross
domestic product per capita converted to international dollars using purchasing
power parity rates in 2011
2. In
poor countries, half of all health expenditures are paid out-of-pocket
Percentage
total share of health care expenditure between different income levels in 2011
3. By
2030, effects of climate change on agriculture key to driving people into
poverty.
4. Poor
households spend more of their budget on food
Percentage
of household budget spent on food
5. Impact
of climate change on agricultural prices over time
Percentage
change in agricultural prices over time
6. The consequences
of climate change (Courtesy: NASA)
Global climate change has already had observable effects
on the environment. Glaciers have shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes is breaking
up earlier, plant and animal ranges have shifted and trees are flowering
sooner.
Effects that scientists had predicted in the past would
result from global climate change are now occurring: loss of sea ice,
accelerated sea level rise and longer, more intense heat waves.
Scientists have high confidence that global temperatures
will continue to rise for decades to come, largely due to greenhouse gases
produced by human activities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), which includes more than 1,300 scientists from the United States and
other countries, forecasts a temperature rise of 2.5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit
over the next century.
Predictions:
6a. Temperatures will continue to rise
6b. Frost-free season (and growing season) will lengthen
In the US, the length of the frost-free season (and the
corresponding growing season) has been increasing nationally since the 1980s,
with the largest increases occurring in the western United States, affecting
ecosystems and agriculture. Across the United States, the growing season is
projected to continue to lengthen.
6c. Changes in precipitation patterns
Average U.S. precipitation has increased since 1900, but
some areas have had increases greater than the national average, and some areas
have had decreases. More winter and spring precipitation is projected for the
northern United States, and less for the Southwest, over this century.
6d. More droughts and heat waves
Droughts in the Southwest US and heat waves (periods of
abnormally hot weather lasting days to weeks) everywhere are projected to
become more intense, and cold waves less intense everywhere.
Summer temperatures are projected to continue rising, and a reduction of soil
moisture, which exacerbates heat waves, is projected for much of the western
and central U.S. in summer. By the end of this century, what have been
once-in-20-year extreme heat days (one-day events) are projected to occur every
two or three years over most of the nation.
6e. Hurricanes will become stronger and more intense
The intensity, frequency and duration of North Atlantic
hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5)
hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative
contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still
uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are
projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.
6f. Sea level will rise 1-4 feet by 2100
Global sea level has risen by about 8 inches since
reliable record keeping began in 1880. It is projected to rise another 1 to 4
feet by 2100. This is the result of added water from melting land ice and the
expansion of seawater as it warms.
In the next several decades, storm surges and high tides could combine with sea
level rise and land subsidence to further increase flooding in many regions.
Sea level rise will continue past 2100 because the oceans take a very
long time to respond to warmer conditions at the Earth’s surface. Ocean waters
will therefore continue to warm and sea level will continue to rise for many
centuries at rates equal to or higher than those of the current century.
6g. Arctic likely to become ice-free. The Arctic Ocean is
expected to become essentially ice free in summer before mid-century.
6h. U.S. regional effects
Below are some of the impacts that are currently visible
throughout the U.S. and will continue to affect these regions, according to the
Third National Climate Assessment Report2, released by the U.S. Global Change
Research Program:
Northeast. Heat waves, heavy downpours and sea level rise
pose growing challenges to many aspects of life in the Northeast.
Infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries and ecosystems will be increasingly
compromised. Many states and cities are beginning to incorporate climate change
into their planning.
Northwest. Changes in the timing of streamflow reduce
water supplies for competing demands. Sea level rise, erosion, inundation,
risks to infrastructure and increasing ocean acidity pose major threats.
Increasing wildfire, insect outbreaks and tree diseases are causing widespread
tree die-off.
Southeast. Sea level rise poses widespread and continuing
threats to the region’s economy and environment. Extreme heat will affect
health, energy, agriculture and more. Decreased water availability will have
economic and environmental impacts.
Midwest. Extreme heat, heavy downpours and flooding will
affect infrastructure, health, agriculture, forestry, transportation, air and
water quality, and more. Climate change will also exacerbate a range of risks
to the Great Lakes.
Southwest. Increased heat, drought and insect outbreaks,
all linked to climate change, have increased wildfires. Declining water
supplies, reduced agricultural yields, health impacts in cities due to heat,
and flooding and erosion in coastal areas are additional concerns.
(Courtesy: IPCC 2007, Summary for Policymakers, in
Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of
Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p. 17.)
7. Based on these observations, we can interpret the
results in part as the susceptibility of an economy to climate change.
Figure 1 below summarizes the results on a world map. In
line with much of the economic literature, many developing nations appear most
vulnerable to climate change during the remainder of the current century.
Alternatively, Figure 2 below expresses this trend of
higher vulnerability amongst poorer countries by plotting the overall
vulnerability ranking against GDP per capita for each country.
8. Prediction: number of residential properties at
significant likelihood of flooding (river and tidal) in England and Wales
Sources: NASA, Schroders.com, National Geographic
