Sunday, October 1, 2017

Imagining all of cosmic time on a single calendar year





The universe is 13.8 thousand million years old. We are going to imagine all of the cosmic time, and in order to do that, let's compress it into a single calendar year. The cosmic calendar begins on January 1st with the birth of our universe. It contains everything that's happened since then, up to now, which on this calendar is midnight December 31st. On this scale, every month represents about a billion years. Every day represents nearly 40 million years. Let's go back as far as we can, to the very first moment of the universe. January 1st, the Big Bang. (explosion) It's as far back as we can see in time... for now. Our entire universe emerged from a point smaller than a single atom. Space itself exploded in a cosmic fire, launching the expansion of the universe and giving birth to all the energy and all the matter we know today. I know that sounds crazy, but there's strong observational evidence to support the Big Bang theory. And it includes the amount of helium in the cosmos and the glow of radio waves left over from the explosion. As it expanded, the universe cooled, and there was darkness for about 200 million years. Gravity was pulling together clumps of gas and heating them until the first stars burst into light on January 10th. On January 13th, these stars coalesced into the first small galaxies. These galaxies merged to form still larger ones, including our own Milky Way, which formed about 11 billion years ago, on March 15th of the cosmic year. Hundreds of billions of suns. Which one is ours? It's not yet born. It will rise from the ashes of other stars. See those lights flashing like paparazzi? Each one is a supernova, the blazing death of a giant star. Stars die and are born in places like this one -- a stellar nursery. They condense like raindrops from giant clouds of gas and dust. They get so hot that the nuclei of the atoms fuse together deep within them to make the oxygen we breathe, the carbon in our muscles, the calcium in our bones, the iron in our blood, all of it was cooked in the fiery hearts of long-vanished stars. You, me, everyone -- we are made of star stuff. This star stuff is recycled and enriched, again and again, through succeeding generations of stars. How much longer until the birth of our Sun? A long time. It won't begin to shine for another six billion years. Our Sun's birthday is August 31st on the Cosmic Calendar... ...four and a half billion years ago. As with the other worlds of our solar system, Earth was formed from a disk of gas and dust orbiting the newborn Sun. Repeated collisions produced a growing ball of debris. See that asteroid? No, not that one. The one over there. We exist because the gravity of that one next to it just nudged it an inch to the left. What difference could an inch make on the scale the solar system? Just wait, you'll see. The Earth took one hell of a beating in its first billion years. Fragments of orbiting debris collided and coalesced, until they snowballed to form our Moon. The Moon is a souvenir of that violent epoch. If you stood on the surface of that long ago Earth, the Moon would have looked a hundred times brighter. It was ten times closer back then, locked in a much more intimate gravitational embrace. As the Earth cooled, seas began to form. The tides were a thousand times higher then. Over the eons, tidal friction within Earth pushed the Moon away. Life began somewhere around here, September 21st, three and a half billion years ago on our little world. We still don't know how life got started. For all we know, it may have come from another part of the Milky Way. The origin of life is one of the greatest unsolved mysteries of science. That's life cooking, evolving all the biochemical recipes for its incredibly complex activities. By November 9th, life was breathing, moving, eating, responding to its environment. We owe a lot to those pioneering microbes. Oh, yeah-- one other thing. They also invented sex. December 17th was quite a day. Life in the sea really took off, it was exploding with a diversity of larger plants and animals. Tiktaalik was one of the first animals to venture onto land. It must have felt like visiting another planet. Forests, dinosaurs, birds, insects, they all evolved in the final week of December. The first flower... bloomed on December 28th. As these ancient forests grew and died and sank beneath the surface, their remains transformed into coal. 300 million years later, we humans are burning most of that coal to power and imperil our civilization. (whooshing) Remember that asteroid back in the formation of the solar system-- the one that got nudged a little to the left? Well, here it comes. It's 6:24 AM on December 30th on the Cosmic Calendar. (impact thundering) For more than a hundred million years, the dinosaurs were lords of the Earth, while our ancestors, small mammals, scurried fearfully underfoot. The asteroid changed all that. Suppose it hadn't been nudged at all. It would have missed the Earth entirely, and for all we know, the dinosaurs might still be here but we wouldn't. This is a good example of the extreme contingency, the chance nature, of existence. The universe is already more than 13 and a half billion years old. Still no sign of us. In the vast ocean of time that this calendar represents, we humans only evolved within the last hour of the last day of the cosmic year. 11:59 and 46 seconds. All of recorded history occupies only the last 14 seconds, and every person you've ever heard of lived somewhere in there. All those kings and battles, migrations and inventions, wars and loves, everything in the history books happened here, in the last seconds of the Cosmic Calendar. But if we want to explore such a brief moment of cosmic time... ...we'll have to change scale. We are newcomers to the cosmos. Our own story only begins on the last night of the cosmic year. It's 9:45 on New Year's Eve. Three and a half million years ago, our ancestors, yours and mine, left these traces. We stood up, and parted ways from them. Once we were standing on two feet, our eyes were no longer fixated on the ground. Now we were free to look up in wonder. For the longest part of human existence, say the last 40,000 generations, we were wanderers, living in small bands of hunters and gatherers, making tools, controlling fire, naming things, all within the last hour of the Cosmic Calendar. To find out what happens next, we'll have to change scale to see the last minute of the last night of the cosmic year. We're so very young on the time scale of the universe that we didn't start painting our first pictures until the last 60 seconds of the cosmic year, a mere 30,000 years ago. This is when we invented astronomy. In fact, we're all descended from astronomers. Our survival depended on knowing how to read the stars in order to predict the coming of the winter and the migration of the wild herds. And then, around 10,000 years ago, there began a revolution in the way we lived. Our ancestors learned how to shape their environment, taming wild plants and animals, cultivating land and settling down. This changed everything. For the first time in our history, we had more stuff than we could carry. We needed a way to keep track of it. At 14 seconds to midnight, or about 6,000 years ago, we invented writing. And it wasn't long before we started recording more than bushels of grain. Writing allowed us to save our thoughts and send them much further in space and time. Tiny markings on a clay tablet became a means for us to vanquish mortality. It shook the world. Moses was born seven seconds ago. Buddha, six seconds ago. Jesus, five seconds ago. Mohammed, three seconds ago. It was not even two seconds ago that, for better or worse, the two halves of the Earth discovered each other. And it was only in the very last second of the Cosmic Calendar that we began to use science to reveal nature's secrets and her laws. The scientific method is so powerful that in a mere four centuries, it has taken us from Galileo's first look through a telescope at another world to leaving our footprints on the Moon. It allowed us to look out across space and time to discover where and when we are in the cosmos. CARL SAGAN: We are a way for the cosmos to know itself.

References: Cosmos A Space Time Odyssey, Standing Up in the Milky Way

Thursday, September 28, 2017

My Books Wish List (October, 2017)



Dear friends

I love reading so one day I decided to get the list of famous books of my interest and then I search them on search engines like Google, Million Short (https://millionshort.com/) to get them gratis. For example, if I wanted self  help books, I query 'self help books' on Google and it presents you with a list of its own. While opening Google, instead of typing 'google.com' (this redirects you to local site like 'google.co.in', 'google.co.uk', etc), type 'google.com/ncr', here 'ncr' means 'no country redirect' and you land on to the global 'google.com' page.

Given below is the list from 'google.co.in':



Given below is the list from 'google.com/ncr':


Next you look up for book you want by forming queries like 'the secret pdf', 'power of now pdf', 'think and grow rich pdf', and so forth. If this does not work, try other post-fixes after the book name like ''psycho cybernetics epub', 'psycho cybernetics ebook download' to get links to any site like 'archive.org' having the book for download in format other than PDF.

Here is a list of books that I wish to read but could not find them to download gratis. If you have any of these books, please send it at: ashishjainblogger@gmail.com

Self Help Books:
  1. The Seven Spiritual Laws of Success (Deepak Chopra M.D., 1994)
  2. You Are a Badass: How to Stop Doubting Your Greatness and Start Living an Awesome Life (Jen Sincero, 2013 e1)
  3. Who Moved My Cheese? An Amazing Way to Deal with Change in Your Work and in Your Life (Dr Spencer Johnson, 1998 e1)
  4. Codependent No More: How to Stop Controlling Others and Start Caring for Yourself (Melody Beattie, 1986 e1, 1992 e2)
  5. The Untethered Soul (Michael A. Singer, 1971, 2007)
  6. The Happiness Project: Or Why I Spent a Year Trying to Sing in the Morning, Clean My Closets, Fight Right, Read Aristotle, and Generally Have More Fun. (Gretchen Rubin, 2009)
  7. The Artist's Way: A Spiritual Path To Higher Creativity (Julia Cameron, 1992)
  8. Women Who Love Too Much (self-help, Robin Norwood, 1985)
  9. The Magic (self-help and spirituality, Rhonda Byrne, 2012)
  10. The Richest Man in Babylon (George Samuel Clason, financial advice through a collection of parables, 1926)
  11. Wherever You Go, There You Are (Jon Kabat-Zinn, 1994)
  12. 10% Happier: How I Tamed the Voice in My Head, Reduced Stress Without Losing My Edge, and Found Self-Help That Really Works – a True Story (Dan Harris, 2014) 
  13. F*ck Feelings: One Shrink's Practical Advice for Managing All Life's Impossible Problems (Michael Bennett MD, Sarah Bennett, e1 2015)
  14. Full catastrophe living: using the wisdom of your body and mind to face stress, pain, and illness (Jon Kabat-Zinn, 1991)
  15. 59 Seconds: Think a Little, Change a Lot (Richard Wiseman, 2009)
  16. The Relaxation & Stress Reduction Workbook (Matthew McKay, Elizabeth Robbins Eshelman & Martha Davis, 2008, 6e)
  17. Train Your Brain: 60 Days to a Better Brain (Ryuta Kawashima, 2003)
  18. Study Smarter, Not Harder (Kevin Paul MA, 2014)
  19. The Book of Woman (Osho, 2013)
Fiction Books:
  1. Don't Let Go (Harlan Coben, 2017)
Though the purpose of this article is to tell you how you could get free books online, but at times there are books that are either to new to be on internet for download, or are not so popular to show up in top ranks in Google search result, or are simply not there on the internet for download, at this time, some one who could afford it can look up the URL given below for those books and then share them to help others grow as well, after all, sharing is caring!

Few paid sites where these books might be available in downloadable format are:
  1. www.scribd.com

Paid sites where you could read online:
  1. www.24symbols.com
To use Google to search a URL for a book, type in search string like this: "book-name url:archive.org", "book-name url:scribd.com" and so forth.

# Creating a 'Google Search Alert' for books
To monitor the web for interesting new content about your search-query. Go to Google Alerts page and create a search-alert for a search query like "you are a badass pdf" and once new results are published on the web you will be notified about it over mail and on this page.

Thanking you in anticipation!
Warm Regards
ashishjainblogger@gmail.com

Saturday, July 22, 2017

Career or home-making for women?


Career or home-making for women?

You are born in a society that kills girl child in the womb even before she has come to life, you cut girls from schools, make them drop even before matriculation only to keep them at home to do the household chores. Now when the time comes after a girl has completed schooling and was lucky enough to have college education, and finished that as well, she is well suited to have a career, a future, a job and she decides she wants to be the homemaker, makes one wonder how lame a person can be.
When a woman chooses to be a homemaker, a housekeeper, or a housewife, there are certain responsibilities that she now has; Wikipedia has a page dedicated only for this and each responsibility has a dedicated section (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homemaking). To be clear, some of these responsibilities include cooking, cleaning, laundry, maintenance (home and lawn), repair, operations, interior design, de-cluttering, purchases, etc., why lie?
However, as one in India would know and must have seen, hired maids, who do it to earn a meager living, perform all these tasks. For the women who called themselves homemakers "live lives queen-size". They have a husband to pay for everything, the one thing that she/they should have done themselves, I.e., educate the kids is done in private schools and home tuitions, etc., as they are unfit to impart something they didn't well receive in the first place.
The best thing that these women are good at is in fighting with their in-laws or kids or whoever it is in their way of life. I have seen a lot such fighting, and it is in these fights that you see the level of logic or intelligence they can apply to a situation, a word of advice though, if you do encounter a fight like this, don't mind the women's language.

Now I am a very positive person, I try to look at the bright side of everything and applying the same idea here, I see that even though these women add to the count of the unemployed in the country, they do not add to the count of the poor.

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Understanding Schizophrenia


Understanding Schizophrenia


(Self-portrait of a person with schizophrenia, representing that individual's perception of the distorted experience of reality in the disorder)

The word "Schizophrenia" was coined by Paul Eugen Bleuler (30 April 1857 – 15 July 1939), it is derived from two Greek words "skhizein" meaning "to split" and "phren" meaning "mind".

Few definitions of this word:
A long-term mental disorder of a type involving a breakdown in the relation between thought, emotion, and behavior, leading to faulty perception, inappropriate actions and feelings, withdrawal from reality and personal relationships into fantasy and delusion, and a sense of mental fragmentation. (Google Dictionary)

Schizophrenia is a mental disorder characterized by abnormal social behavior and failure to understand what is real. Common symptoms include false beliefs, unclear or confused thinking, hearing voices that others do not hear, reduced social engagement and emotional expression, and a lack of motivation. People with schizophrenia often have additional mental health problems such as anxiety disorders, major depressive illness, or substance-use disorders. Symptoms typically come on gradually, begin in young adulthood, and last a long time. (Wikipedia)

Confusing, yeah, let me start over...
Schizo means to split, phrenia in this case refers to the mind even though schizophrenia can be interpreted to mean splitting of the mind, it does not refer to the split personality like some media sources might portray. Rather schizophrenia describes scattered or fragmented pattern of thinking.
Schizophrenia is actually a syndrome meaning there are all sorts of symptoms that might be associated with it and different patients might experience different symptoms. Although symptoms can be broadly categorized under three major areas: positive symptoms, negative symptoms and cognitive symptoms.
Alright, taking a step back, most human symptoms from any illness are extreme version of a normal physiological process for example everyone has a heartbeat, right, tachycardia is a fast heartbeat. In the same way, everyone has a normal body temperature but during a fever, that temperature is higher.
In schizophrenia, patients have positive symptoms, which aren't positive is the sense that they are helpful but positive in the sense they are some new feature that does not have a normal or physiologic counterpart.
These are psychotic symptoms such as delusions, hallucinations, disorganized speech and disorganized or catatonic behavior; none of which occur physiologically.

Delusions are false beliefs that the person might feel very strongly about so much so that they will not change their mind even if you gave them evidence against it. There are all sorts of different delusions like for example a delusion of control where somebody thinks that some outside source or person or thing is controlling their actions.
There can be delusions of reference where someone might think that insignificant remarks are directed at them, like a newscaster is speaking directly to them through the TV.
Hallucinations are a second type of positive symptoms and there can be any kind of sensation that is not actually there, including visual but also including auditory sensations like hearing voices or commands.

A third type is disorganized speech, an example being something like a word salad which seems just like a random jumbling of the words or phrases like "pencil, dog, hat, coffee, blue!"

Disorganized behavior, on the other hand, could be like an exhibit of bizarre or silly behavior that is out of context and does not seem to have much of a purpose, like for example, wearing multiple layers of jackets on a hot summer day. Also sometimes, there may be behavior that is described as catatonic, which has to do with their movements, postures and responsiveness. So like, they might be super resistant to moving or being an unresponsive stupor.

Negative symptoms are when there is reduction or removal of normal processes. In addition, this is like a decrease in emotions that they can express or a loss in interest in things that they once found interesting.
One type of negative symptom is called flat affect where they do not respond with an emotional reaction, which would seem inappropriate. Like if they saw something very unexpected like a small monkey playing in the living room, they might simply sit and watch idly as if nothing was happening.
Another type is alogia or poverty of speech, which a lack of content in their speech so like if somebody asked them "Do you have any children?", they might respond with "Yes.", instead of "yeah, one boy and two girls".
A third type of negative symptom is avolition, which is the decrease in motivation to complete certain goals so some of them might stay at home for a long period of time without trying to reach out the friends or find work.
Cognitive symptoms are like not being able to remember things, learn new things or understand other things easily. These symptoms are more subtle though, they are more difficult to notice and might only be detected if there are really specific tests for them. Example would be somebody not being able to keep track of several things at once, like a phone number and an address.

People with schizophrenia seem to cycle through three phases, typically in order. During the prodromal phase, patients might become withdrawn and spend most of their time alone and a lot of times, it seems similar to other mental disorders like depression or anxiety disorder. During the active phase, patients experience more severe symptoms like delusions, hallucinations, disorganized speech, disorganized behavior or catatonic behavior. Following an active phase, patients are often enter into a residual phase where they might exhibit cognitive symptoms like not being able to concentrate or becoming withdrawn again as with the prodromal phase.

For an official diagnosis of schizophrenia (DSM-V), patients need to be diagnosed with two of the following:
1. Delusions
2. Hallucinations
3. Disorganized speech
4. Disorganized / catatonic behavior
5. Negative symptoms

Also, at least one of them has to be one of these:
1. Delusions
2. Hallucinations
3. Disorganized speech

So basically, they could not have just disorganized behavior and negative symptoms. Even though some patients might have cognitive symptoms as well, they are not specifically needed for diagnosis. Also though for a diagnosis, signs of these disturbances must be ongoing for at least 6 months, meaning that they are likely in one phase or another for a period of 6 months but there must be at least one month of “active” phase symptoms.
Finally, those symptoms cannot be attributed to another condition, like substance abuse.
Now that we have diagnosed it, why does it even happen in the first place? What causes schizophrenia? Well, researchers do not really know, since it seems that signs and symptoms of schizophrenia are pretty unique to humans, or at least they are hard to imagine or notice in animal models like mice or rats (“Is this rat delusional?”). One clue is that that majority of anti-psychotic medication that improves schizophrenia symptoms blocks the dopamine receptors “D2” which reduces dopamine levels in neurons. This thing suggests may be schizophrenia has something to do with the increased levels of dopamine. These medications are though neither universally nor completely effective and do not work for everyone with schizophrenia which adds to the confusion that there is probably more to the story than just the D2 receptors. Interestingly, one of the most effective anti-psychotic drugs is a weak D2 antagonist (blocker) so just seems that other neurotransmitter systems norepinephrine, serotonin and GABA are probably involved.

Twin studies have shown to support the genetic basis as well, even though there have not been any specific genes conclusively linked to schizophrenia yet.
In addition, environmental factors like early/prenatal exposure to infections, and certain autoimmune disorders like celiac disease have been linked with schizophrenia.
Finally, an important set of clues involve the epidemiology, schizophrenia seems to happen slightly more in men than in women with onset in the mid-twenties for men but late twenties for women and a clinical signs for schizophrenia are often less severe. Some studies suggest differences might be due to estrogen regulation of dopamine systems. There however does not seem to be any difference among the race.
Now treating schizophrenia can be really tricky and anti-psychotic medications are often used but it is super important to combine the efforts of several explanations/disciplines and health professionals including professionals in therapy and counseling, medicine, and psychopharmacology. Anti-psychotics can be very effective at reducing symptoms but they often come with a lot of additional considerations to keep in mind like cost and potential for unwanted side effects like tolerance, dependency or withdrawal.
Final word, schizophrenia is not curable but treatable and could last life long. It is a serious mental illness that is diagnosed to 3.2 million people in the population every year. About 0.3–0.7% of people are affected by schizophrenia during their lifetimes. In 2013, there were an estimated 23.6 million cases globally. About 20% of people do well, and a few recover completely.

( My Eyes at the Moment of the Apparitions  by German artist  August Natterer , who had schizophrenia)

(Cloth embroidered by a person diagnosed with schizophrenia.
A schizophrenic patient at the Glore Psychiatric Museum made this piece of cloth and it gives us a peek into her mind.)

Friday, June 30, 2017

Are minimum wages sufficient?




This notice here shows the data about the minimum wages and skill based categories in India (minimum wages figures are in INR). The working hours are mentioned but these could extend from 11 hours to 12 hours a day.






































A Case Study: how practical these figures are:
This table shows the monthly expenses of last seven months of a person keeping a low economic profile in Gurugram (Haryana, India). These expenses include costs of rent, maintenance, electric and food. Rent is for a one room-set (or studio) apartment with a floor area of 220 sq. feet. Water is state-government provided. Lunches on weekdays are company provided.

Item Expense Month
House Rent 4500 Dec-2016
Maintenance 500 Dec-2016
Electric 200 Dec-2016
Food/Milk/Etc 2755 Dec-2016
Total 7955
House Rent 4500 Jan-2017
Maintenance 500 Jan-2017
Electric 200 Jan-2017
Food/Milk/Etc 3021 Jan-2017
Total 8221
House Rent 4500 Feb-2017
Maintenance 500 Feb-2017
Electric 200 Feb-2017
Food/Milk/Etc 3806 Feb-2017
Total 9006
House Rent 4500 Mar-2017
Maintenance 500 Mar-2017
Electric 200 Mar-2017
Food/Milk/Etc 4054 Mar-2017
Total 9254
House Rent 4500 Apr-2017
Maintenance 500 Apr-2017
Electric 200 Apr-2017
Food/Milk/Etc 3084 Apr-2017
Total 8284
House Rent 4500 May-2017
Maintenance 500 May-2017
Electric 200 May-2017
Food/Milk/Etc 3297 May-2017
Total 8497 May-2017
House Rent 4500 Jun-2017
Maintenance 500 Jun-2017
Electric 200 Jun-2017
Food/Milk/Etc 4712 Jun-2017
Total 9912 Jun-2017
Total 9051 Jul-2017
Total 7453 Aug-2017
Total 8541 Sep-2017
Total 9880 Oct-2017
Total 11678 Nov-2017

Clearly, if costs tend to increase monthly then living on the bare minimum is not possible.

Sunday, June 18, 2017

Making 5000 friends on Facebook




Ever felt that you need to explore, meet people, try new language, new culture, influence politics, get influenced by politics, well, Facebook could be that place where to make overseas friends to achieve all of this. In addition, we are not talking about a group or two, we talking of five thousand of such friends. It starts with the user adding a few acquaintances and then developing on this group of people to get to other and more people.

For adding new people:

Facebook has this utility “People You May Know” where you can find people with whom you have mutual friends and these ones the user should add first.

Going forward this way, the application “Find Friends” helps discover people based on hometown, city (location), high school, mutual friend, college or university, employer, university (postgraduate). Find people with whom you have mutual friends, the more the better.

One has to be consistent in sending friend requests and adding the people, do not be shy, times could be testing, but make a note of sending at least ten friend requests a day. If one is feeling, s/he could be sending five hundred requests on occasions.

Getting people to add you:

There several factors in which you can influence people to add you, like location, mutual friends, interests, common activities, political inclinations, etc.

Put on a profile picture that shows you socializing and avoid mug shots. Put on a picture with the opposite sex, whether it is family, friends, colleagues or batch mates, anything would work if your picture shows you smiling and in the company. If you cannot find opposite sex, it would be difficult to recognize you between you and your friend(s).

Support a political party, for example edit your profile picture to put on the icons to support political parties (Democrats, Republicans, individuals). Use your profile cover photo space to put on banner supporting a political party. Chances are people supporting the same party would add you before you add them.

Put in information about you in the Facebook profile, be genuine, do not brag and let public see it so they know whom they are adding.

Be expressive while putting content on Facebook put your articles, pictures, application scores, one-liners, notes, anything, but be social and expressive.


Monday, May 29, 2017

Road ahead for India to Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK)


Road ahead for India to Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK)


This is all about what lies ahead for India as one of the world's largest military forces, as a double-trillion-dollar economy to do about Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir. We will explore this by looking at some of biggest questions that come in the minds of Indians and India’s allies when it comes to PoK.

The first one: Why is India not willing to get back POK from Pakistan?


Simla Agreement 1972 is the reason.
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, the then PM of Pakistan and Indira Gandhi the then PM of India signed this agreement in Simla in 1972, after Indo Pak war of 1971. Both the countries agree in the agreement that Kashmir issue is a bilateral issue and will be solved by peaceful means. The agreement converted the cease-fire line of 17 December 1971 into the Line of Control (LOC) between India and Pakistan and it was agreed that "neither side shall seek to alter it unilaterally, irrespective of mutual differences and legal interpretations.” India has a record of honoring any treaties and agreements signed. Be it bilateral or Multilateral. India is just keeping its word as given in the treaty, and honors the agreement. The Government of India will not seek to alter it unilaterally, just because people want then to do so. Her clean record of not failing any agreements makes India a trusted partner when signing any bilateral agreements.



“What is the main reason India does not try to annex the part of Kashmir controlled by Pakistan? Why can't India win back PoK?”

The time for India to get back PoK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir as it called in India or Azad Kashmir as it is called in Pakistan) is long past.
1. Jawaharlal Nehru prematurely went to the UN Security Council in 1948 that brought external intervention to the dispute. India is still paying for many of the mistakes of our first Prime Minister. Once the UN got involved, it became hard for India to take aggressive action there. https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/kashun47.htm (This article will show India's advantageous position before Nehru's intervention brought a ceasefire. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Kashmir_War)               

2. After 1970s, both nations developed nuclear and missile capabilities precluding the possibility of a major war. If India were to attack PoK, Pakistan is guaranteed to respond with a nuclear attack.

3. Currently, Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PoK) are almost entirely Muslim (after the minority Hindus were driven out or got killed in partition in 1947) and India will find it hard to argue its case of winning back. If anything, India could have fought to keep Sindh (that had the largest Hindu percentage among Pakistani provinces in 1947) rather than Kashmir.

4. Status quo is beneficial to everybody (even if Pakistan makes noise otherwise). Ending the current status can open Pandora's box.

5. Because it is not worth to annex Pakistan occupied Kashmir.

5a. Arable Land: India have maximum arable land in disputed territory. Pakistan occupied Kashmir is not much useful. It is less densely populated, rugged mountains. These are no use of India. Even India win these territory they have to spend lots of money and military to hold it. Gorilla warfare and militant proxy war will be an overhead in controlling these areas. So economically it will be expensive to hold such land. Similarly for China occupied Kashmir Shaksgam valley and Aksai Chin. These two territory is filled with soda lakes. So question is what China is doing there? They have National highway 219 which connects mainland China with Xinjiang province.

5b. Demographics: Demographics of Pakistan occupied Kashmir do not favours India. Consider current situation of Kashmir. Just imagine what will happen if North west of India is full of militants and stone platters. So its fools paradise to fight for such land.

5c. Geo Strategic Land: Some people argue that it is important geo strategic land. But I believe it’s not much important after India captures Siachen Glacier. NJ9842, Indira colony and Karakoram pass provide triangle boundary between India, China and Pakistan. Hence India can easily monitor militant or any army moves from these areas. India maintains control over all of the 47 miles long Siachen Glacier and all of its tributary glaciers. So geopolitically we have enough land.

“What are the long term solutions, if any?”

Maintain the status quo. India will not give Indian Kashmir. Pakistan will not give Pakistan occupied Kashmir. Infact in both countries it becomes political suicide if any government do any change in Line of control. So in current scenario touching or altering Line of control is highly implausible. Best is maintain status quo.
Conclusion: India and Pakistan should maintain status quo without interfering in internal matters of each other. India and Pakistan should understand that they have problem inside their nation. They should give priority to develop whatever land they have. Pakistan should leave its obsession for Indian Kashmir. Indian should leave their obsession to Pakistan occupied Kashmir. They should prosperous their respective nations.

“When might India get back Pakistan Occupied Kashmir?”

India will not get back the entire Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, in the coming 20–30 years. But definitely India will be able to capture some portion of it in the next two decades, if some serious border clashes happen between the two countries. In 1984 India successfully captured the Siachen Glaciers from Pakistani army, and in 1965 Indo Pak war, India captured the strategic Haji Pir Pass which dominated Kargil town and many other tactically important areas , and later returned back respecting the Tashkent Declaration.
After the successive surgical Operations in November 2016, the cross border policy of India towards Pakistan is facing a Paradigm Shift. Thus if a future war erupts between both the Countries (unlike in 1998, Kargil Conflict, India strictly didn’t cross the LOC and recaptured it’s territory after a fierce battle), Indian Army definitely will occupy some of the Border territories including the Peaks in Gilgit and Baltistan, other areas of POK, without any hesitation. Now the Indian Govt, and International Community including US, France, Russia, and UK will back India as they strongly feel, India is their only friend in the region that can tackle China. Also the regional Players like Afghanistan (where majority of the population hates Pakistan, and strongly believes Pakistan is the reason for their instability), will strongly support India, whom they see as it’s natural Ally.
“Can India get its occupied land back from neighbors like Pakistan and China? If yes, how?”
India is not going to get an inch of land from either Pakistan or China for the near future. Pakistan and India have an equal claim to Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir —Azad Kashmir & Gilgit-Baltistan. From Pakistan’s POV, India and Pakistan were divided along religious lines, and thus Kashmir should belong to Pakistan, since Kashmir was Muslim majority when the partition happened. From India’s POV —the provision was that areas under the direct control of British India was to divided along religious lines, and not the princely states, which had the option to either join India or Pakistan. Kashmir had no obligation to accede to Pakistan, given that it was not at all under the direct control of British India.

As it happened, the princely states enclosed by Pakistan acceded to Pakistan, and the ones which were enclaves of India acceded to India (a few states like Hyderabad, Manipur and Tripura put up a defensive; the ruler of the princely state of Hyderabad was defeated by Indian forces, while Manipur and Tripura acceded to India, after India gained control of Hyderabad).

However, Kashmir was bordered by both India and Pakistan, and the ruler of Kashmir wanted to remain independent. The Muslim Conference of the state wanted to accede to Pakistan, since Kashmir was 90% Muslim back then. Result? 1947 Poonch Rebellion. Then, the Maharaja doesn’t have the military might to quell this revolution and asks India for help, promising to accede to India.
As for Aksai Chin —the territory controlled by China, but claimed by India and parts of Arunachal Pradesh —the territory controlled by India but claimed by China, the differences go back to the British era.
In the first few decades after Indian independence, China used military might to gain pieces of land. Pakistan and India fought over disputed Kashmir —and ended up getting almost half each. I wouldn’t say either of them “gained” over the other. No country had any right to Kashmir whatsoever and so nobody lost and nobody gained (as far as I’m concerned).
But that was the 20th century. The three nations were rebelling kids back then and have now learnt the lessons of what a full scale war can bring. China and India are easily among the 5 most powerful nations in the world. A war between these two countries can derail the robust economic growth both countries have had in the past few decades, and I’m sure neither country wants a war. Even if, say, China (or India) gets to control both Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, the benefits (the gained territories) will be far, far, lesser than the damage, both in terms of lives lost and economic loss. Pakistan is a far lesser military power than India, but even then it can put up a stellar defense against any Indian incursion, and it’ll be much like India and China fighting. A full scale war probably won’t trigger a nuclear war, but the damages caused by even a conventional war can be enormous, again, considering the fact that these countries are in their golden period of growth. You don’t want to derail a train that’s moving on the right track with great speed.
Thus, we’re left with a few options:
    Preserve status quo, but maintain claims: Talk all you want for political gains or international diplomacy —but nobody is getting anything. Whatever border exists now will remain so in the future. There will be no wars, only claims. The three countries can claim all they want —Pakistan can claim the entirety of Kashmir, or even parts of Punjab or fuck it, Tamil Nadu, and India can claim Islamabad! But again, really, nobody is getting anything.

    What this means: Pakistan gets to keep Azad Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan; China gets to keep Aksai Chin; India gets to keep the remaining of Jammu & Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh.
    Formally withdraw claims, preserve status quo: The three kids can all grow up and formally withdraw all claims on each other’s territory and preserve status quo.
    Diplomacy: Get other countries to withdraw claims on your territory —but refuse to do the same yourselves. Ha! Not happening, not happening at all. Or, exchange territories. China gets to keep the parts of Arunachal Pradesh it wants, and India gets to keep Aksai Chin —this is not preferred, of course, but just saying that it is one possibility.
The best option, and the one currently practised by all three nations is (1). All three nations talk quite a lot; they don’t withdraw their claims, but they’re not warring each other other. Sure, there are a couple of skirmishes along the borders every now and then but that’s about it. (1) is the best option, because it pleases the nationalists in all three countries and so it is a viable option for the political parties in all three nations (a majority of the population won’t prefer war, but still can’t digest the fact that their country has withdrawn claims over some territory and so the “Ah! They’re doing stuff” will be there). No party will be willing to take the serious risk of giving up claims —that’s suicide.
That said, China and India have taken steps to that effect: China ready to make concessions in Aksai Chin if India cedes part of Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, China offers India fresh proposals to mend ties. As a democracy, it’s hard to expect India to publicly state that it will also withdraw its claim on Kashmir or give up parts of Arunachal Pradesh, but has supposedly expressed its intent behind closed doors”: India 'will let China keep Aksai Chin' in return for Arunachal Pradesh (note: This is not an official statement, rather a derived intent from “foreign ministry documents”, as quoted by the Daily Mail). An excerpt:
    Publicly, India has been holding to its stated position that there can't be any territorial concessions. But behind the closed doors of the negotiating room, India has told China that it "may not be averse to status quo position".

With some maturity amongst the majority population, this is a viable option. But it’s hard to tell when the population will attain that level of maturity. Until, a war of words should continue, with no real expectations. The words released to the press will purely be to satisfy the public.

Sunday, December 11, 2016

How unsafe is Gurugram?


How unsafe is Gurugram (Gurgaon)?



‘How unsafe is the city’ is the first question that comes to a person’s mind while he/she has to move to a new city. In case of Gurugram that becomes more obvious when one gets to hear to everyday news like this ‘Man arrested for rape, murder of 5-year-old girl in Gurgaon’ or this ‘Two brothers were fired at by four men following a property dispute in Gurgaon, leading to the death of one, the condition of the other being critical’ or this ‘Male employee alleges sexual assault by Portuguese boss’.

With city being the business hub about 20 miles to the south of the capital where many multinational companies have opened offices, there are people commuting for over two hours every day from Delhi, or nearby NCR cities. This makes it even worse for women, whose complaints about their everyday ordeals in the city can be heard in the media.  They lament about the private auto rickshaw drivers, “the alternative to costly cab would be to take a shared auto, though that put you at risk of being groped by male passengers”, about the police, “thinking about how the Haryana police had said they couldn’t guarantee the safety of women after 8 p.m. I wouldn’t be able to call the police for help, as they’d likely blame me for being out in public late at night”, or about the state as a whole, “in Haryana, which has one of the worst male-female ratios in India, a woman walking down the street was apparently quite an event”.

And, the crime graph is on a rise in Gurugram. If January 2015 figures are anything to go by, crime promises to keep Gurugram police on their toes. Compared to the corresponding month last year, the number of vehicles thefts at 247 and robberies at 11 went up by 8.5% and 54.55% to 268 and 17, respectively. It is not just the numbers that are startling but also the nature of the crimes and the manner in which they were executed. About 10 robberies this January involved gun-toting miscreants, triggering panic among residents. Another rising concern is the increase in number of rapes, robberies, assaults, burglaries, and thefts, including motor vehicle thefts. The total vehicle thefts registered by the police in Gurugram in 2014 was 3,638, and this trend continues. Gurugram is experiencing high rates of homelessness, drug abuse, gang violence and prostitution. Several organized cartels and street gangs operate in the city.

The police department in Gurugram is headed by the Commissioner of Police - Gurugram Police, which forms a part of the Haryana Police, and reports to the Haryana state government.
You can see the most wanted criminals on the city Police’s website: “http://gurgaon.haryanapolice.gov.in/most-wanted-criminals.htm

Gurugram’s population continues to swell. People are drawn here from all over the country, and in India’s 21st-century workforce, the average age is 25 to 35. I fall into that category, but after living the so-called dream, I’ve had enough. It is about the time for change.

Crime rates in Gurugram, India
Level of crime
74.3
High
Crime increasing in the past 3 years
75.6
High
Worries home broken and things stolen
60.9
High
Worries being mugged or robbed
69.0
High
Worries car stolen
63.1
High
Worries things from car stolen
63.1
High
Worries attacked
67.9
High
Worries being insulted
60.0
High
Worries being subject to a physical attack because of your skin color, ethnic origin or religion
36.2
Low
Problem people using or dealing drugs
47.4
Moderate
Problem property crimes such as vandalism and theft
63.1
High
Problem violent crimes such as assault and armed robbery
69.3
High
Problem corruption and bribery
80.2
Very High
Safety in Gurugram, India
Safety walking alone during daylight
53.2
Moderate
Safety walking alone during night
20.9
Low